From January to February, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, up 3.2 percentage points from December last year. Among them, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.3% year-on-year, up 3.5 percentage points from December last year; Manufacturing is the main force of production recovery.
From January to February, the production and sales rate of industrial enterprises was 97.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from December last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 1.2%; 1-2 industrial enterprises achieved an export delivery value of 2266.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 16.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from December last year.
From the perspective of external demand, the export growth rate in US dollars from January to February was 16.3%, down 13.6 percentage points from December last year. From the leading indicators of export growth, the average value of the global PMI composite index of JPMorgan Chase from January to February was 52.3%, down 2 percentage points from December last year; The average value of Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) from January to February was 1798, 1034 points lower than that in December last year.
Although the nominal growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February was 6.7% and the actual growth rate was 4.9%, up 5 percentage points and 5.4 percentage points respectively from December last year; However, due to the soaring number of confirmed cases of covid-19 epidemic in China, which reached the level in early February 2020, Shenzhen and other important cities were forced to implement community closed management measures, and the suspension of bus and subway lines was bound to have a significant impact on production and consumption in March. The service industry and catering industry will be impacted. In addition, the urban survey unemployment rate rebounded to 5.5% in February, which is higher than the level before the epidemic, which is bound to have an adverse impact on consumption this year.
From the perspective of investment, although the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 12.2% year-on-year from January to February, up 7.1 percentage points from December last year; However, there is a differentiation trend between real estate investment and manufacturing and infrastructure investment, and real estate investment is still 0.7 percentage points lower than that in December last year. According to the credit data in February, the medium and long-term growth of households was 457 billion yuan less, indicating insufficient demand for real estate investment; The medium and long-term growth of enterprises (Institutions) is 593.8 billion yuan less than that of the same period last year, indicating that the investment intention of enterprises is also weak. This shows that although the supply has rebounded, the performance of demand is not as good as the investment and retail data.
