Event: the cumulative growth rate of industrial added value was 7.5% year-on-year and 0.34% month on month. The cumulative investment in fixed assets was 12.2% year-on-year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 6.7% year-on-year.
The growth rate of industrial production exceeded expectations, the mining industry and manufacturing industry rose, and the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry were better than the upper reaches as a whole. The power generation turned positive year-on-year. The equipment manufacturing boom in the middle reaches of the manufacturing industry is still not weak, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry continues to rise; The downstream automobile manufacturing industry has warmed up. The export delivery value remained resilient, supporting the manufacturing industry. Since the output of raw coal, natural gas and other energy products has increased, the import has been disturbed by geopolitical and other risk factors. However, the output of steel, cement and other infrastructure related varieties fell significantly.
The service industry production index fell, and the offline consumption and service performance were weak under the influence of the epidemic and the local Chinese New Year. The local Chinese new year has an impact on returning home, but the number of trips is better than that in the same period last year. In March, the epidemic struck again, and it is expected that offline consumption and service industry will still be impacted.
The overall investment is upward, the sales, new construction and completion related to real estate are still weak, and the construction is a weak support item. February was the traditional off-season for transactions, and the sales growth turned negative. The source of funds of real estate enterprises continued to tighten, which was greatly dragged down by weak sales. Negative increase in new construction and completion of real estate enterprises; The construction was promoted by the implementation and resumption of work and production of guarantee delivery measures, and the real estate enterprises also accelerated the construction in order to speed up the payment collection and boost market confidence. "Centralized land supply" affects the rhythm of land acquisition, and the land transaction is cold years later. The short-term pressure on real estate investment is still large, and the performance of breakdown data is weak.
The boosting effect of infrastructure investment appeared, and manufacturing investment also continued to rise. Infrastructure investment has started to rise, but it has not yet made full efforts. The pace of special bonds is ahead. It is expected that infrastructure will maintain rapid growth in the first half of the year. The high-tech manufacturing industry still leads. In addition to the policies of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and steady growth, imported inflation promotes PPI, and the price also has a certain impact.
Consumption growth rebounded, driven by low base and rising prices of consumer goods such as energy for two consecutive years. More than zero consumption, catering income is stronger than zero. In terms of sub items, optional consumption has been boosted, with the most significant rise in energy and gold, silver and jewelry. Compulsory consumption and consumption of some real estate downstream industries are weak. Although the Spring Festival this year is still disturbed by the epidemic prevention and control, the number of people returning home is better than last year. In March, due to the spread of the epidemic in Shanghai and Shenzhen and the tightening of urban control, offline consumption will be suppressed to a certain extent.
Weak employment, the Spring Festival and the epidemic have brought some interference. The unemployment rate rose to 5.4%. In terms of age structure, the unemployment rate of 25-59 years old continues to rise, and the employment of young and relatively cheap labor aged 16-24 remains stable. Employment was also affected by the epidemic in March.
Although the economic data showed strong performance after the year, there are still structural defects, which are different from the micro high-frequency and financial data. The follow-up economy and market still need policy care. Real estate sales and new construction are still poor, the unemployment rate is rising again, and the credit extension process is slow. The economic data showed strong performance. In addition to the role of low base, the effect of steady growth was obvious, the dual control of energy consumption and the correction of real estate policies played a certain boost, and the process of interest rate reduction in March was suspended. Under the pressure of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European and American sanctions, the intensification of the epidemic and the decline of the stock market, the credit and fiscal policies will continue to work, and the time point of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates will be moderately delayed. The current policy
Risk factors: the policy is less than expected, the decline of real estate is more than expected, and consumption continues to be weak.
