Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen reappeared the weak adjustment pattern. The three major indexes opened low in the morning and showed a pull-up performance for the first time, but the rebound strength was limited. The gem index fell again after a short red market, and the rebound strength of the other two indexes was weaker. The index opened in the afternoon to accelerate the downward trend. Finally, the three major indexes closed down, the two main board indexes also broke the low point, and the Shanghai index fell below the integer mark of 3100 points.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the Shanghai Composite Index walked out of the 100 point long negative on Tuesday and gradually approached the 3000 point line, some exceeding expectations. The increase of short-term market uncertainties has led to the intensification of the adjustment range of the index short term investors still need to fear the market as a whole, and the reversal of the trend will not happen overnight. It is not recommended to cut meat blindly here, rebound after a sharp fall, or . It is suggested that investors hold shares and wait for a rebound. Those with light positions can choose blue chip varieties and absorb them lower level by level.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on Tuesday, the market fell in large quantities, fell 3100 points, and the net outflow of funds from the North exceeded 16 billion, which had a great impact on the market capital, the market profit-making effect was very poor, and the risk aversion increased, considering the large fluctuation of market sentiment in the short term, it still faces the pressure of geopolitics, the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates and other events, It is expected that the market will be dominated by shock consolidation, waiting for the market to gradually stabilize, and pay attention to the volume and energy and the changes of China’s epidemic . In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to the industries such as finance, building materials, steel, electrical equipment, TMT, etc.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the current rapid decline of A-Shares was mainly caused by the instability of external factors. The continuous sharp decline of zhonggai shares and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index triggered a surge in risk aversion among investors. It is expected that before the full release of external factors, A-Shares are more likely to continue to explore and seek effective support. It is expected that the short-term shock of the Shanghai stock index will go down and seek support, and the short-term slight decline of the gem is more likely. We suggest investors to wait and see in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips .
In terms of the future market, Bohai Securities believes that the current market is more troubled by the external uncertainty, which leads to the continuous outflow of funds going north, and the risk avoidance behavior of domestic capital aggravates the market fluctuation to a certain extent. Therefore in the short term, there is still the possibility of repetition of external risk factors and domestic risk aversion, or promote the repeated process of the bottom of the market . However, in the medium and long term, the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point of enterprise profitability upward. In the process of market panic and risk aversion, the probability will bring low allocation opportunities in the year .
Guosheng Securities believes that with the gradual easing of the international situation and the imminent landing of the boots of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday morning (the basis point of the first interest rate increase and the guidelines for the subsequent interest rate increase and contraction will be announced), a-share market may usher in an oversold rebound after a continuous bottom . In terms of operation, we can pay attention to the growth sectors related to photovoltaic, semiconductor and new energy with continuous correction since the beginning of the year, excellent short-term price and large expected growth in the first quarter, as well as the related concepts of “stable growth” with great contribution to the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%, the theme investment opportunities such as “digital economy” and “computing from the east to the west”. In the short term, it is necessary to avoid the continuous selling of northward funds and the consumption, household appliances and other sectors with a large proportion of positions.
From a macro perspective, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that there are some constraints on further easing, on the one hand, is the high energy price under the influence of geographical conflict, which once again squeezed the profit space of the middle and downstream industries, on the other hand, is the resurgence of the epidemic, which further affects the confidence and expectation of the national sector, It is uncertain whether the liquidity released by easing can effectively form “wide credit”, and there is a risk of further pushing up the price level of bulk raw materials.
At the same time, overseas tightening cycle is about to start, and the outflow of northbound funds is accelerated against the background of the marginal deterioration of China’s fundamentals, which also further tightens the micro liquidity of the market and significantly suppresses the market . As coal and other energy sources enter the off-season of demand, the superimposed price limit and supply guarantee policy is gradually implemented, and the pressure on the cost side of the middle and lower reaches is expected to ease, releasing the policy space of “wide currency” + “wide credit”.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that suggested to maintain defense, prolong the cycle, wait for the market sentiment to stabilize after the bad situation is exhausted, and drive the recovery of the economy . In this process, it is suggested to focus on the counterattack potential of the undervalued sector of the market, as well as the high boom track stocks with strong industrial logic support and expected to accelerate the repair after fully digesting the valuation.
In addition, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned to tap low-risk high-quality gold stocks. The idea and method of stock selection is: looking for structural varieties with loose chip trading structure and EPS improvement expectation in the last round of core group industry . Recommendations: 1) profit improvement and steady growth: photovoltaic / wind power / power operation / power grid / digital infrastructure / construction, etc; 2) consumption reversal and profitability determinacy: hog / Baijiu / service; 3) Focus on alpha opportunities in growth: be optimistic about new material tracks, including military new materials.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the current short-term response to intense volatility and accelerated rotation should be balanced, and the medium and long-term attention should be paid to the third stage of growth, the valuation market and the opportunity of consumption recovery and price rise. In the process of responding to extremely pessimistic expectations, the market has increased volatility and accelerated rotation, and institutional investors should respond with balanced allocation after substantial adjustment, the valuation level of the market and some industries has returned to a historically low level, and the medium and long-term investment value has been significant. We pay attention to the market in the third stage of growth and the price rise of consumption recovery, which are two investment mainlines with greater rebound elasticity in the future market .
main line I : look forward to the medium-term investment opportunity of the valuation market in the third stage of growth style. Now is a good time for layout. Specifically, we can focus on the strong growth main line industries represented by new energy (vehicles) and electronics and the industries expected to benefit from valuation diffusion represented by national defense and military industry and computers.
main line II : medium and long-term investment opportunities for the recovery of service consumption and the rise in the price of mandatory consumer goods, especially after the recent correction due to the impact of the epidemic. Pay attention to the pharmaceutical sector prepared in advance to realize the recovery of service consumption and the travel chains such as airport, catering, tourism and leisure services after the repeated impact of the recent epidemic. In addition, the medium and long-term investment opportunities of rising prices of necessities also deserve attention, including dairy products, planting industry, chemical fertilizer, etc. In terms of theme, we will continue to pay attention to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
