Key investment points
Core view: continue the slow bull market
A shares fluctuated upward at the end of the year. The major indexes of A-Shares rose last week; Among them, small and medium-sized enterprises increased by 1.78% in 100 weeks, with better performance; SSE 180 rose 0.32%, the weakest performance. From the perspective of style classification, small cap and loss making stocks performed better. In terms of industries, most industries fell, and only 10 of the 28 major industries rose; Among them, social services, national defense and military industry and comprehensive ranked the top three; Utilities, coal and food and beverage ranked the last three. In terms of themes, in addition to the board concept, lithium, cold chain logistics and industrial hemp index led the increase; Biological breeding, UHV and Baijiu index are ranked the top. In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate decreased at the end of the year; Among them, the turnover rate of large market value represented by the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index last week was 0.44%, down from 0.52% in the previous trading week. The turnover rate of small and medium-sized market capitalization represented by China Securities 500 index was 1.28%, which was significantly lower than 1.55% in the previous trading week. The average turnover on Sunday was about 1005.55 billion, down 4.1% from the previous trading week. At the end of the year, the trading activity continued to decline.
“Document No. 1” focuses on small and micro enterprises. Following the recent emphasis of the national Standing Committee on further adopting a market-oriented approach to strengthen financial support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, the central bank’s “No. 1 document” in 2022 also focused on small and micro enterprises, issued heavy policies, continued to promote the increment, price reduction and expansion of inclusive small and micro loans, helped stabilize enterprises, ensure employment and promote the stability of the macroeconomic market. Among them, from January 1, 2022, the continuous conversion of two direct tools, Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool and Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan, will be implemented. Small and micro enterprises play an important role in the national economy. There are many subjects in the small and micro market, which is not only a manifestation of economic vitality, but also the main force driving employment. The inclusion of inclusive small and micro credit loans into the management of agricultural support and small refinancing support plan will make the original policies seamless, help guide financial institutions to continue to increase their support for small and micro enterprises and promote the growth of credit scale, Optimize the credit structure, enhance economic vitality and increase employment.
We will continue to strengthen the protection of investors’ interests. The CSRC issued announcement No. 1, and the CSRC and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the measures for the administration of commitment funds of parties to securities and futures administrative law enforcement, and issued the provisions for the implementation of commitment system of parties to securities and futures administrative law enforcement (hereinafter referred to as the implementation provisions). The new regulations mainly involve three aspects: first, adjust the name of “settlement fund” to “commitment fund”; Second, improve the management mode of commitment fund; The third is to clarify the upper limit of the total amount of compensation and the treatment of the commitment when the parties make compensation by themselves. The new regulations specify that the commitment money paid by the parties can be used to compensate investors for losses, which is conducive to resolving the contradiction between the “difficulty of investigation” faced by law enforcement in the capital market and the “fast investigation” required by the market, and is conducive to better compensation for the interests of damaged investors.
Suggestions on industry configuration: focus on new energy industry chain, big technology, national defense and military industry. In 2022, with the withdrawal of the stimulus policy, the recovery rate of developed countries will gradually decline, the global demand side will shrink, and the gradual withdrawal of the quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve will restrict the liquidity of the global financial market. At the same time, the growth rate of China’s A-share performance has fallen, the monetary policy is mainly stable, and the liquidity will actually be neutral and tight under the background of continuous contraction overseas. The market may need to look for support first; With the development of the counter cyclical adjustment policy, the industrial drive has shifted from the old economy to the new economy, China’s economic growth model has changed from high growth to high-quality development, and the residents’ asset allocation has gradually changed from real estate to capital market. In the medium and long term, A-Shares will continue to be a slow bull. The short-term market continues to maintain the trend of shock consolidation. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to focus on the key directions of China’s economic structure adjustment, such as new energy industry chain, large science and technology and national defense industry.
Risk tips: interest rate fluctuates more than expected, overseas market fluctuates more than expected, economic growth is less than expected, enterprise performance does not meet expectations, other systemic risks, etc.
