Overseas macro: U.S. consumer consumption is expected to continue its growth trend
The widening labor gap in the U.S. job market makes it difficult to recruit workers, and wages are further pushed up, thus promoting the growth of personal disposable income. In addition, the debt repayment pressure of the resident sector is controllable, and the crowding out effect on consumption is not obvious. High inflation will push up the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales, but it will also weaken the actual purchasing power of consumers and inhibit consumption.
The characteristics of low vaccine effectiveness promote the rapid and large-scale spread of the epidemic in the United States. At present, the number of new infections in this round of epidemic led by Omicron in the United States has exceeded the peak when delta is dominant, and the consumption recovery process is hindered by the epidemic of Omicron strain. The growth of credit card balance slowed down; The number of diners before Christmas and on Christmas day was lower than the level before the epidemic; Before and after Christmas, a large number of flights were cancelled due to staff shortage; Many sports events and performances have been cancelled or postponed.
With the widening labor gap in the United States, it is difficult for companies to recruit workers, leading to the rise of salary level or promoting the recovery of consumption. However, the sustained high inflation will reduce the actual purchasing power of residents and inhibit consumption. At present, the recovery trend of commodity consumption is good, but the consumption of service items has not fully recovered. The consumption of various residents' service items has been restrained by the epidemic situation of Omicron mutant strain to a certain extent. For the consumption outlook for next year, on the one hand, it is expected that the increase of hourly salary in the United States may promote the increase of personal disposable income, thus boosting consumer demand; On the other hand, the Federal Reserve may gradually start tightening monetary policy. If tightening monetary policy can curb high inflation, it will help consumption growth. Under the background that the leverage of the U.S. resident sector is still controllable, it is expected that the U.S. resident consumption will continue to grow.
