Liquidity: the growth difference between M1 and M2 ended, deviated negatively for 6 consecutive months, and converged slightly in November.
(1) The value of BCI financing environment index in December 2021 was 47.13, a month on month increase of + 7.26%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.5 percentage points in November 2021, with a month on month increase of + 0.4 percentage points.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: in December, the steel PMI new order index stopped falling and turned to 28.1%. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 2.26%, cement price index – 1.83%, rubber + 2.78%, coke + 3.91%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore – 3.57%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 1.46pct, -2.48pct, -1.60pct and -2.14pct respectively, of which the blast furnace capacity utilization rate rose for two consecutive weeks; (3) In December 2021, the national steel PMI new order index was 28.10%, up + 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Real estate completion chain: glass and PVC prices fell month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 8.07% month on month respectively this week; (2) The profit of titanium dioxide this week was 2952 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 19.27%; (3) The price of PVC was 8958.00 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 1.19%.
Industrial product chain: PMI new order index rebounded for the second consecutive month in December, still below the boom and bust line. (1) Price performance of main bulk commodities: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 1.43%, + 0.04%, + 1.39% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 7.14%, + 0.40%, + 6.97%; (2) The 4-week rolling value of the average daily sales volume of wholesale and retail passenger cars was 139000, with a month on month increase of + 5.11%; (3) In December 2021, PMI’s new order index was 49.70%, a month on month increase of + 0.3 percentage points.
Breakdown: the price of thermal coal fell to 800 yuan / ton. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 155650 yuan / ton, up + 2.64% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 18000 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.27%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 5250 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 3.67%, and the profit is 505 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20360 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.39%, and the estimated profit is 3695.8 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 6.97%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 574 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 14.07%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 800 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 14.89%; (8) Price performance of other varieties: the prices of molybdenum concentrate and tungsten concentrate were + 0.43% and + 1.36% month on month to 2320 and 111500 yuan / ton respectively.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread remains positive. (1) The price ratio of thread and iron ore was 6.08 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar is 120 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 770 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month ratio of + 30 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.13, which is at a 10-year low. (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 230 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month ratio of – 20.69%.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States is still at a high level in the same period of 5 years. (1) China’s export container freight rate index CCFI composite index this week was 3344.24 points, a month on month increase of + 1.33%; (2) The utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 81.60% this week, with a month on month ratio of – 0.20 percentage points.
Investment suggestion: the Ministry of industry and information technology said that the implementation plan for carbon peak in key industries such as iron and steel and nonferrous metals has been prepared, and the dual control policy of capacity and output in the iron and steel industry will become the new normal in the future. In December, several listed companies of central enterprises issued equity incentive schemes, and the profitability of major listed iron and steel enterprises is expected to remain high. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Shandong Iron And Steel Company Ltd(600022) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) .
Risk prompt: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; The risk of poor management of the company. main points
