Industry trend: this week, the public utilities and environmental protection index rose 0.34%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%. Among the public utilities, clean energy power generation and local power grid increased significantly, rising by 2.54% and 1.99% respectively this week; Among the environmental protection sectors, the solid waste sector increased the most, up 7.09%.
Key points of this week:
1) Utility perspective:
Establish the target of renewable energy proportion of central enterprises and further promote the transformation of new energy: the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council recently prepared and issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, which clearly pointed out that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the comprehensive energy consumption of 10000 yuan output value of central enterprises decreased by 15%, and the carbon dioxide emission of 10000 yuan output value decreased by 18%, The installed capacity of renewable energy power generation accounts for more than 50%, and the revenue of strategic emerging industries accounts for no less than 30%. By 2030, remarkable results will be achieved in the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of central enterprises, the comprehensive energy consumption of 10000 yuan output value will be greatly reduced, and the carbon dioxide emission of 10000 yuan output value will be reduced by more than 65% compared with 2005. By 2060, an industrial system of green, low-carbon and circular development of central enterprises and a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system will be fully established. According to our statistics, China’s “five big and four small” power generation groups accounted for about 39.55% of the total installed capacity of renewable energy by the end of 2020, and there is still much room for reaching the goal of more than 50% of renewable energy. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ] [China Resources Power (H)] [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] and so on.
Looking at the medium-term growth of new energy operation targets from the perspective of “project competition”: Overall, we believe that the three-tier investment framework of new energy operation is as follows: 1) looking at the company’s texture and installation planning in the long term; 2) In the medium term, the reserves of proposed and planned projects; 3) In the short term, “construction in progress”. We believe that this year’s project competition reflects the medium-term development potential of various enterprises. The construction cycles of photovoltaic, onshore wind power and offshore wind power are half a year, one year and 1.5-2 years respectively. The competing projects in 2021 are expected to start construction in 2022 and put into operation in 2023. Therefore, we sorted out the competition and allocation of scenery projects announced by all provinces in 2021, and 17 provinces have released the competition and allocation results. Generally speaking, the traditional power generation enterprise groups led by national energy group, Datang Group and state power investment group are absolutely competitive. At the level of listed companies, [China Resources Power (H)] [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [Longyuan Power (H)] [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] obtained the highest installed capacity, which were 8.4GW, 5.5gw, 4.6gw, 4.4gw and 3.5gW respectively.
2) Environmental protection perspective:
Strengthen waste water recycling and vigorously improve water efficiency: the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the implementation plan for industrial waste water recycling, which proposed to strive to achieve about 94% reuse rate of industrial water above designated scale by 2025, greatly increase the amount of Municipal Reclaimed Water for industrial use, and reduce the water consumption of 10000 yuan of industrial added value by 16% compared with 2020, Basically form a new pattern of efficient recycling of wastewater from major water industries. Recently, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments jointly issued the guiding opinions on strengthening urban water saving work, which clearly puts forward that by 2025, the water use efficiency of cities across the country will be further improved, and the utilization rate of reclaimed water in water deficient cities at prefecture level and above will reach more than 25%. Further attention has been paid to water recycling. It is recommended that the leading enterprise of ozone generator [ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ] widely used in municipal water treatment and industrial sewage treatment be recommended. At the same time, it is recommended to focus on the leading enterprise of civil centrifugal pump [ Guangdong Lingxiao Pump Industry Co.Ltd(002884) ].
Accelerate the construction of circular economy system and attach importance to renewable resources: Recently, SASAC issued the guidance on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization. It is mentioned that to speed up the construction of circular economy system, central enterprises should focus on reduction, reuse and recycling, and strive to build a resource-based industrial system; Improve the processing and utilization level of renewable resources, and promote the large-scale, standardized and clean utilization of renewable resources such as waste steel, waste non-ferrous metals, waste plastics and waste power batteries. It is suggested to focus on [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ] of the dragon head target of hazardous waste recycling and [ Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) ] of the scarce target of recycled plastics.
Market information tracking:
1) Carbon market tracking: this week, the total turnover of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 28.07 million tons, with a total turnover of 1.379 billion yuan. The highest transaction price is 62.29 yuan / ton and the lowest transaction price is 47 yuan / ton. The total trading volume of local carbon trading markets is 1.397 million tons. In terms of average transaction price, the highest average transaction price is 69.15 yuan / ton in Beijing market and the lowest transaction price in Fujian is only 0.99 yuan / ton.
2) Tracking of natural gas price: according to the data released by Zhuo Chuang information, during this cycle, the weekly average transaction price of national LNG ex factory was 4838.80 yuan / ton, up 195.27 yuan / ton month on month, or 4.21%; Among them, the weekly average ex factory price of the terminal was 4988.06 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of 134.19 yuan / ton, or 8.78%; The average weekly ex factory price of the factory was 4752.86 yuan / ton, up 148.18 yuan / ton, or 3.22%.
2) Coal market price tracking: according to the data released by the coal resources network, the cci5500 comprehensive price index this week was 851 yuan / ton. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index was 815 yuan, down 100 yuan on a weekly basis; Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) 5500 kcal index was 650 yuan, and the weekly ring ratio decreased by 57 yuan; Datong 5500 kcal index was 710 yuan, with a weekly decline of 65 yuan. With the further reduction of the purchase price of large groups, the main producing areas began a new wave of price reduction, with the price reduction of most coal mines ranging from 50-120 yuan.
investment portfolio
[ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ]+[ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ]+[ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ]+[ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]+[ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ]+[ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ]
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project operation progress is less than expected, the power coal price rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the electricity price is reduced.
