abstract
On December 27, 2021, the Bureau of Statistics announced that the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises from January to November increased by 38% year-on-year, with an average increase of 18.9% in two years. In November, the value was 805.96 billion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year and – 1.56% month on month, indicating that the profits of industrial enterprises decreased. By industry, the total profit of the upstream mining industry fell sharply, with a value of 128.17 billion yuan in the current month and 163.21 billion yuan in the previous month, with a month on month growth rate of – 21%; The same period last year was 36.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 248%, and a two-year compound year-on-year growth rate of 92%. The total profit of the midstream manufacturing industry continued to grow, with a value of 682.85 billion yuan in the current month, compared with the previous value of 631.4 billion yuan, with a month on month growth rate of 8%; The same period last year was 643.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6% and a compound year-on-year increase of 18%. The total profits of downstream power, heat, gas and water supply fell sharply, with a value of – 1 billion yuan in the current month, compared with the previous value of 26.3 billion yuan, with a month on month growth rate of – 104%; The same period last year was 51.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 102%, and a compound year-on-year increase of – 51%.
Since July this year, the profits of the upstream mining industry have increased significantly compared with previous years. In terms of sub items, affected by the upward trend of coal prices, the profit of the coal mining industry has improved most significantly this year, and the profit has increased significantly since April. With the strong promotion of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price in September, the price of thermal coal fell significantly month on month. However, due to the high price compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year profit growth rate was still high, reaching 1037%. The total profits of oil and gas exploitation and ferrous metal mines decreased compared with the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 126.7% and 18.4%. The year-on-year growth rates of non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation and non-metallic mining and beneficiation were 55.7% and 50.9% respectively, and continued to be high.
Due to the price trend change of some raw materials in the upstream, the cost pressure of the downstream industry is relieved. The profit structure of manufacturing industry has changed, and the profit growth of consumer goods manufacturing industry has accelerated. On the supply side, the production of consumer goods was stable and the price rose steadily, driving the profit of the consumer goods industry to increase by 13.6% year-on-year, higher than the growth rate of industries above Designated Size by 4.6% in the same period. Among them, the profits of textile, clothing and apparel industry increased by 71.0% month on month, the growth rate being a new high this year. The profit of food was in good condition, with a month on month increase of 22.6%, and the profit changed from decline to increase. The profit growth rates of wine and beverage, agricultural and sideline products processing, culture, education, industry and beauty were 16.9%, 14.6% and 14.3% respectively. The overall boom recovery of terminal consumption will be a significant marginal improvement plate in 2022. In November, the profit of equipment manufacturing industry changed from decline to increase. Among them, the manufacturing industry of railway, shipping, aerospace and other transportation equipment performed well. In November, the profit increased by 72% month on month, the profit of special equipment manufacturing increased by 46% month on month, and the profit of general equipment manufacturing increased by 37% month on month. In addition, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and the instrument and meter manufacturing industry have reached a new high in total profits since 2021. In addition, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry was – 6.4% year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrowed, and the total profit increased by 22% month on month. The improvement was mainly due to the recent easing of the core shortage problem, a slight decline in cost pressure, and the dual role of demand improvement.
In the current period, the risk premium of A-Shares was 0.38%, 0.07% higher than that in the previous period. The overall profitability of A-Shares improved significantly, PE continued to revise downward, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.79% in the current period, which continued to maintain the investment value of A-share risk premium.
In the current period, semiconductor erp-1.15%, an increase of 0.06% over the previous period, in the neutral normal allocation range of risk premium; In this issue, pharmaceutical and biological erp0 14%, 0.01% higher than that in the previous period, in the neutral and high allocation range of risk premium; National defense and military industry erp-1.36%, 0.02% higher than the previous period, in the neutral normal allocation range of risk premium; Chemical ERP2 20%, a change of – 0.11% over the previous period, in the allocation range with high risk premium.
The overall risk premium of the cycle sector still maintains a high allocation value: in this period, iron and steel erp7 91%, a change of – 0.05% over the previous period, in the allocation range with high risk premium; Nonferrous Metals erp0 67%, a change of – 0.03% over the previous period, in the allocation range with high risk premium.
In terms of large and medium disk rotation, the price ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 to China Stock Exchange 500 generally showed a downward trend from 1.13 in mid February to the end of April. After a short recovery in May, it continued to show a downward trend, and the ratio in this period increased from 0.808 in the previous period to 0.809. The mid market continued to show strength over the market. In terms of large and small disk rotation, the price ratio between CSI 300 and Guozheng 2000 has generally shown a downward trend since mid February (this year’s high of 0.85). After a short recovery in May, it has continued to show a downward trend, and the ratio in this period has increased from 0.511 in the previous period to 0.512. Small cap continues to be stronger than the overall market trend.
In the current period, the dividend yield of Wande quana changed from 1.45% in the previous period to 1.46% in the current period. The ten-year Treasury bond yield Wande quana dividend yield was 1.3258%, and the distance from the warning value of 2.5% (the highest point of the bull market in the past) changed from 111.86bp in the previous period to 117.42bp in the current period. The dividend yield of SSE 50 changed from 1.45% in the previous period to 1.46% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – SSE 50 dividend yield was 0.1954%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.1% changed from 84.64bp in the previous period to 90.46bp in the current period. The dividend yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 changed from 2.58% in the previous period to 2.59% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – dividend yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 0.8387%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.8% changed from 90.55bp in the previous period to 96.13bp in the current period. The dividend yield of CSI 500 changed from 1.94% in the previous period to 1.95% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bond – dividend yield of CSI 500 was 1.3274%, and the distance from the warning value of 3% changed from 161.79bp in the previous period to 167.26bp in the current period.
