Key investment points:
The expectation of steady growth increased, and PMI continued to rise. In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.3, up 0.2 percentage points month on month, and the manufacturing boom level rebounded for two consecutive months. In December, the official non manufacturing PMI was 52.7, up 0.4 percentage points month on month, higher than the critical point for four consecutive months. The comprehensive PMI in December was 52.2, which was the same as that in November. The production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises expanded steadily on the whole. The expectation of steady growth was enhanced, and new orders rebounded slightly; With the falling prices of upstream products, enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, and the inventory of raw materials has rebounded more; Affected by the epidemic spread in Shaoxing, Xi'an and other places and the adoption of closure measures, the production index fell significantly. The prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises continues to differentiate, the prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises continues to improve, and the situation of small enterprises continues to deteriorate. With the introduction of more measures to stabilize growth and the implementation of preferential policies for small and micro enterprises, the overall prosperity of enterprises is expected to continue to rise.
The profits of middle and lower reaches enterprises have improved significantly. As the prices of some bulk commodities have fallen, the pulling effect of mining and raw material industries on profit growth has weakened, while the contribution of equipment and consumer goods manufacturing industry in the middle and lower reaches to the profits of industrial enterprises has increased, the proportion of profits has increased significantly, and the phenomenon of profit differentiation between the upper and lower reaches has eased. Driven by factors such as the stable recovery of consumer goods production and the recovery of prices, the profit of consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 13.6% year-on-year, significantly accelerated by 10.0 percentage points over the previous month, and the growth rate rebounded for two consecutive months. Benefiting from the strong export and consumption recovery, the profit growth of textile, clothing, wine and beverage, agricultural and sideline food processing, culture, education, industry and beauty, food and other industries has significantly accelerated. It is expected that the profit improvement trend of small and medium-sized tourism will continue.
Policy efforts have been gradually strengthened. The credit policy will show a trend of price reduction and volume increase, the "double carbon" monetary tool will be implemented, and the demand for real estate financing will be improved. Yi Gang said that the total amount of money and credit should grow steadily in 2022 to promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises. Two special tools to support carbon peak and carbon neutralization are expected to release the first batch of funds to financial institutions before the end of this year. To meet the normal financing needs of residents and real estate enterprises, the market expectation is gradually improving. The comprehensive registration system needs to be implemented smoothly to prevent market ups and downs. Yi Huiman said that he was stepping up the formulation of the reform plan of the whole market registration system to ensure the smooth implementation of this major reform. We will resolutely prevent big ups and downs and urgent ups and downs. The intelligent manufacturing plan has been issued, and 70% of Enterprises above Designated Size will realize digitization by 2025. The 14th five year plan for intelligent manufacturing development proposes that by 2025, 70% of manufacturing enterprises above Designated Size will basically realize digital networking, promote the in-depth application of new technologies such as digital twins, artificial intelligence, 5g, big data, blockchain and virtual reality in manufacturing links, and explore and form a number of intelligent scenes.
Investment suggestions: the leading economic indicators have stabilized and rebounded, the profits of the small and medium-sized tourism industry have improved, and the policy strength has been gradually strengthened. Before the long Spring Festival holiday, funds may find assets with a high margin of safety, steady growth fields or better choices. The adjustment of the market at the end of December is coming to an end, and the index in January is expected to rebound again driven by sectors such as infrastructure and central enterprises. It is recommended to increase the position to 80%. It is recommended to pay attention to banking, real estate, home appliances, medicine, electronics, computers and other industries.
Risk tip: policy and economic data are not as expected, and risk events impact market liquidity.
