Starting from the structural evolution of price factors, this paper analyzes the investment opportunities corresponding to this round of scissors convergence based on the convergence path of ppi-cpi scissors.
1、 How to understand this round of ppi-cpi scissors difference?
1. Structural characteristics and possible convergence path of this round of ppi-cpi scissors: the structural difference between PPI and CPI is the main reason for the continuous expansion of this round of ppi-cpi scissors, the rise of commodity prices pushes up PPI, and the decline of pig cycle drags down CPI. The possible convergence path of the scissors difference in the future corresponds to this. The peak of commodity prices will make the high level of PPI tend to fall, and the rebound of the pig cycle will drive the moderate upward of CPI.
2. The structural characteristics of this round of ppi-cpi scissors convergence are different from those of the past three rounds. It is biased to simply resume the historical convergence to guide the investment. It may be more reasonable to analyze based on the scissors convergence path.
2、 Discussion on investment opportunity corresponding to convergence path of scissors difference
1. Investment opportunities corresponding to PPI peaking: manufacturing profit recovery
(1) The peak of PPI is not a sufficient condition for the manufacturing industry to repair profits and obtain excess returns. The improvement of cost factors may be offset by the negative impact of demand deterioration. Therefore, the market also needs to be boosted by the demand side.
(2) As for the current time point, the mismatch between supply and demand led by the supply side intensifies the impact of rising raw material prices, and the easing of cost pressure will release greater flexibility accordingly; The steady growth policy will accelerate and the marginal loosening of real estate policy is expected to support demand. Cost side improvement, demand side boost, repair market is worth looking forward to.
(3) Comprehensive consideration shall be made in combination with repair elasticity and demand support: on the one hand, pay attention to the industries that release the elasticity of profit repair and boost the demand with steady growth. The primary industries include electric new, machinery and building materials, and the secondary industries include decorative materials, structural materials, engineering machinery, metal products and electrical equipment. On the other hand, pay attention to industries with strong elasticity of profit recovery and release and strong demand independence. Primary industries include new power and building materials, and secondary industries include lighting, electricians and others, metal products and home furnishings.
2. Investment opportunities corresponding to PPI peaking: Food and beverage price rise
(1) During the upward period of PPI, the food and beverage industry is also facing great cost pressure. The price increase will help enterprises transmit cost pressure and realize their own profit recovery. From historical experience, the optimistic expectation of short-term performance elasticity can bring excess returns, while long-term excess returns require the continuous verification of prosperity.
(2) Will weak demand disturb the repair process of food and beverage profits? Consumption is weak, but the necessary consumption demand related to food and beverage remains stable, which is expected to support the transmission of cost pressure in the food and beverage industry, and the subsequent measures to promote consumption are expected to further boost, so there is no need to worry too much.
3. Investment opportunities corresponding to CPI upward: the pig cycle bottomed out and rebounded
(2) The probability of this round of pig cycle rebounded at the bottom of 22q2 ~ Q3. While the upward price of pigs pushed up CPI, the profits of pig enterprises will also be significantly improved, resulting in more deterministic investment opportunities.
(3) How to grasp the market rhythm of the bottom recovery of the pig cycle? Considering the operation law of pig cycle, it is difficult to say that pork prices will bottom up in the short term. At present, it is not the best investment window. The most suitable opportunity for participation should be 2022h2. Pig enterprises are expected to continue to create excess returns from the bottom of pig price confirmation to the peak.
Risk tips: 1. The overseas epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations; 2. Policy environment changes beyond expectations; 3. Overseas market volatility intensified.
