Key investment points:
On December 26, we released "is there still a restless market in spring in Q1 2022?", Tip: in mid and late January, the market will usher in spring agitation, and pay attention to the strategic significance of optimizing positions in the short term. The A-share outlook in 2021 is called the golden mean, and the outlook in 2022 is the boiling era driven by innovation. What are the key drivers and implications from the "golden mean" in 2021 to the "boiling era" in 2022?
General trend study and judgment: from shock market to structural bull
Looking back on 2021, A-Shares showed typical characteristics of volatile market. Wandequan a increased by 9.2%, and the median yield of "stock type and partial stock mixed" funds was 5.7%. There was significant differentiation among the main indexes. 2021 is at the initial stage of short cycle economic downturn. At this time, liquidity has not been relaxed. Similar stages in history include 2005, 2011 and 2018. Looking forward to 2022, despite the economic slowdown, liquidity begins to relax, that is, the residual liquidity is positive. From the stage of short cycle economy, it is similar to 2006, 2012, 2013 and 2019. Therefore, looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of equity fund yield, it is expected to be better than 2021.
Market style: the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises will continue
Looking back on 2021, the style of small cap stocks outperformed significantly. Specifically, by 2021, the market index will fall by 4.5%, the medium index will rise by 9.2% and the small index will rise by 22.7%. According to the recovery law, the stage of short cycle economy has a strong correlation with the market style. When the residual liquidity (M2 nominal GDP growth) improves upward, the style tends to small and medium-sized growth stocks; When the residual liquidity is falling down, the pro cyclical large cap stocks represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 are dominant. Looking forward to 2022, from the time dimension of 2-3 quarters, it is expected that the residual liquidity will improve upward, and then the market style will still favor small and medium-sized growth stocks in 2022.
Industry rotation: traditional and emerging clues
Looking back on 2021, opportunities in traditional industries were dominated by PPI chain, and new energy led the rise in emerging industries. Looking forward to 2022: (1) the rotation of traditional industries will change from PPI chain to CPI chain. Combined with the industry perspective, we will pay attention to breeding chain and food chain. At the same time, we will benefit from steady growth and tap high-quality white horses in real estate, home appliances, home appliances and banks. (2) Among the emerging industries, the hard technology industry represented by the science and technology innovation board has ushered in a new era. At the industrial level, it attaches importance to semiconductors (analog design, materials), national defense equipment (complete machine factory, aeroengine) and consumer electronics (automotive electronics, metauniverse).
Individual stock characteristics: continue the characteristics of small and beautiful
Looking back on 2021, the companies with the highest growth rate observed that the "small and beautiful" characteristics of advanced manufacturing are significant. Looking forward to 2022, based on the overall trend and style, we believe that "small and beautiful" will continue.
Risk tip: performance growth is lower than expected; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations.
