Global macro liquidity
The central bank policies of some economies in the world have turned. The Federal Reserve is expected to complete debt reduction in mid March 2022 and raise interest rates three times in 2022. The last interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in 2021 said that at present, US inflation is no longer a "temporary" problem, and curbing high inflation will become the primary reason for the policy shift. Subsequently, a number of Fed officials expressed hawkish views. On December 18, fed director Waller said that the Fed could flexibly adjust its policy as early as next spring, and it may be guaranteed to raise interest rates "soon" after the end of bond purchase in March. On the same day, San Francisco Fed chairman Daley said that if the US economy overcomes the rebound of the epidemic as expected, it is appropriate to raise interest rates two to three times in 2022. In addition, by the end of 2021, central banks such as the UK, South Korea and Russia had taken interest rate hikes. Among them, the Central Bank of Latin America is the main force in the global interest rate hike camp. In 2021, the Central Bank of Brazil raised interest rates seven times in total; In contrast to the central banks of Latin American countries holding high the banner of raising interest rates, the policies of major central banks in Asia have not changed. In addition to the interest rate hike implemented by the Bank of Korea in 2021, the central banks of China, Japan, India and Southeast Asia have not shown a tightening orientation.
China's macro liquidity
In terms of volume, the social financing and credit data stabilized and rebounded in November, mainly due to the stimulating effect of the large-scale issuance of new local government bonds. From the follow-up trend, social finance has basically confirmed the bottom of this round of credit cycle in November. With the development of subsequent wide credit, the growth rate of social finance is expected to pick up. In late December, the central bank appropriately increased the intensity of open market operation and increased reverse repurchase to maintain the stability of liquidity over the next year. Under the background of China's economy facing demand contraction, attack impact and weakening expectation, the acceleration of the taper process of the Federal Reserve has further compressed the time window of China's monetary policy. If the price pressure is relieved and the profits of industrial enterprises turn negative, it is worth looking forward to another reduction of reserve requirements or interest rates in the first quarter of 2022.
In terms of price, the market interest rate is close to the new year, the capital is tight, and the long and short interest rates are divided. As of December 30, dr007 was 2.47%, up 28bp from two weeks ago. At the same time, the yield of one-year interbank certificates of deposit fell at a low level and remained below the MLF interest rate. In terms of real interest rate, as the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction in December and the central economic work conference sent a relatively clear signal of steady growth, the broad credit expectation continued to increase, and the broad credit expectation may continue to ferment. The interest rate of ten bonds showed a downward trend in the past two weeks. As of December 30, the interest rate of ten bonds was 2.77%, down about 9bp from two weeks ago.
