Basic conclusion
Before and after the Spring Festival, there are not many obvious market turns. The "shape" trend mainly occurs in 2021, 2020 and 2013. Before and after the "U-shaped" Spring Festival, the market turned upward, mainly in 2018 and 2014. Overall, from the market trend before and after the Spring Festival over the years since 2000, whether from the perspective of median or average value, the market has generally adjusted before the Spring Festival, and the market has an obvious upward trend after the Spring Festival.
Reasons for the "shape" trend before and after the Spring Festival: 1) 2020 is mainly affected by the epidemic spread during the Spring Festival; 2) In 2021, it was mainly due to the re spread of overseas epidemic, reversing the market's previous optimistic expectation of epidemic easing, superimposing the increased impact of overseas market fluctuations; 3) The obvious adjustment of the market after the Spring Festival in 2013 was mainly due to the fact that the economy was still not clearly bottomed out, and the central bank began to shrink capital investment. At the same time, the introduction of five new national articles on real estate regulation after the Spring Festival impacted the market risk appetite.
Reasons for the "U-shaped" trend before and after the Spring Festival: 1) the market adjustment before the Spring Festival in 2018 comes from the thunder in the annual report and concerns about the financial deleveraging policy. The short-term rebound after the spring festival mainly comes from the stabilization of overseas markets and the expected warming of Chinese policies; 2) Before the Spring Festival in 2014, the market was mainly impacted by the restart of IPO. After the Spring Festival, the IPO came to an end temporarily, superimposed on the protection of funds by the central bank, and the market rebounded significantly after the festival.
Will there be policy and epidemic inflection points in the market around the Spring Festival this year? We think the probability is low. From the above analysis, we can see that the core reason why the Spring Festival has become a watershed in the market comes from the policy change and the black swan incident. At present, from the perspective of policy, whether monetary policy, credit policy or fiscal policy, the next quarter will be the stage of policy implementation. From the perspective of epidemic development, after the impact of the epidemic for two years, the current market expectations for the interpretation of the epidemic are neither as optimistic as at the beginning of 2021 nor extremely pessimistic. The expectations of influenza and coexistence with the virus are relatively high. From the perspective of performance, the market performance expectation may be relatively stable before and after the Spring Festival: on the one hand, the annual performance of Listed Companies in 2021 is not poor, and the probability of annual report forecast and express disclosed in January will not have a significant impact on the market performance expectation; On the other hand, although the performance in the first quarter is relatively under pressure, the intensive disclosure of relevant information in the first quarter may be from March to April.
Long window: not pessimistic about the A-share market in the next quarter. The next quarter will be the stage with the greatest change in policy marginal easing. In terms of monetary policy, interest rate cuts can be expected. In terms of fiscal policy, infrastructure and other steady growth measures were accelerated. In terms of credit policy, it is worth looking forward to the good start of credit, and the wide credit may be gradually verified. Fundamentals are in a performance vacuum. In fact, the 2021 annual report of listed companies will not be too bad. The real pressure is the first quarterly report. In January, the market was in a performance vacuum period, and the market's downward expectation of performance was relatively sufficient. The short-term performance will not become the core contradiction restricting the market trend.
Focus on the main line return of the new energy sector, layout TMT hard technology, and pay attention to the short-term and fast opportunities of securities companies and the oversold rebound opportunities of medicine and consumption.
First, under the expectation of loose monetary policy and wide credit environment, there is no obvious pressure from the valuation side of the relatively overvalued boom track. In addition, under the downward performance expectation, the plates with high boom will continue to reflect the relatively high growth advantage. Despite the recent disturbance of industrial policies and news, it is still recommended to add boom sectors such as photovoltaic, energy storage, CXO and new energy vehicles on a bargain hunting basis;
Secondly, there is a certain cost performance in the valuation of communications and computers biased towards hard technology in the TMT plate, and the superimposed industry boom remains stable and upward. It is recommended to make an active layout;
Finally, there is an opportunity for oversold rebound in medicine and consumption, but we still need to pay attention to the support of subsequent fundamentals. Relatively speaking, the fundamentals of innovative drugs and mass consumer goods industries are more stable. In addition, on the basis of optimistic market performance in the next quarter, securities companies may have short-term and fast opportunities.
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected and the macro liquidity contraction risk
