Strategic view
Last Friday, the stock indexes of the two A-share markets fluctuated at a high level. As of the closing, the Shanghai stock index rose 0.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the gem index rose 0.00%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.38%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.38%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 rose 0.66%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 2720, higher than the average value of 1974 last week and lower than 2914 the previous trading day. The daily limit was 72, lower than the average value of 100 last week and lower than 100 on the previous trading day. Northbound funds had a net inflow of 4.573 billion yuan, with an average net outflow of 305 million yuan last week and a net inflow of 8.141 billion yuan the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 1063.5 billion yuan. A-Shares maintain the upward contraction. At present, the rebound cycle has not ended. With the continuous market strengthening of “wide currency”, stable credit + structural wide credit, A-Shares are expected to continue to maintain the upward rhythm. In December 2021, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.3, rising for two consecutive months; Non manufacturing PMI was 52.7, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The economic situation in the fourth quarter of 2021 was better than the market had expected. The good economic situation, combined with the current loose liquidity, is expected to make a breakthrough in the area above 3700 points, taking the A-share Shanghai Composite Index as an example.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Point of view: the financial sentiment is warmer, and the short-term index maintains a strong trend
(1) On December 31, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 193600, 115100 and 271500 respectively, with a month on month increase of – 2.39%, 0.15% and – 0.42%;
(2) On December 31, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was 2.63 points, 5.08 points and 12.4 points, with changes of -15.86 points, – 10.13 points and -19.44 points compared with the previous trading day.
Operation suggestion: if2201 is mainly bargain hunting, with support at 4930 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the PCR value is historically low, and the momentum of short capital is insufficient
(1) On December 31, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.69, 0.92, 0.79 and 0.74 respectively, and the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options were at a historical low.
(2) On December 31, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 14.4% and 16.8% respectively. The implied volatility of 300etf option decreased slightly, and the implied volatility of 50ETF option remained low.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: buy 50ETF to buy 3300 in January and sell 50ETF to buy 3400 in January. The maximum profit of a single portfolio strategy is 763 yuan and the maximum loss is 237 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk statement
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
