[morning review]
In early trading, the three major indexes fell together. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.35% to 3627.10 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.73% to 14748.28 points; The gem index fell 2.19% to 3249.81. On the disk, traditional Chinese medicine, agriculture, animal husbandry, fishery and feeding, medicine and commerce, coal industry, culture and media and other industries were active, with energy metals, photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, non-metallic equipment, semiconductors and other sectors leading the decline. In terms of concept, yesterday’s trading limit, yesterday’s trading limit including one word, prefabricated vegetable concept, virtual digital man, yesterday’s board including one word and other plates are strong, while concept plates such as Ning combination, CRO, salt lake lithium extraction, MLCC and hit battery concept are weak. In terms of energy, as of the closing of the afternoon market, the two markets had a total turnover of 810.6 billion yuan.
[afternoon opportunity]
On December 31, the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia issued a notice. Due to the shortage of coal supply for Chinese power plants from January to February, the Indonesian government decided to ban coal export in January to ease the power crisis caused by China’s coal supply shortage. Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of coal / thermal coal, with an average monthly export volume of about 33-38 million tons. In addition, Indonesia is China’s largest source of coal / thermal coal imports. In 2020, China Imported 300 million tons of coal, including 140.99 million tons from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. The second is Australia, which imported 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.
If the export of Indonesian coal is prohibited, it will affect China’s import of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of China’s effective supply, and it is difficult to make up for it through other countries. From January to November 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) effective coal supply was 3.3 billion tons (China’s output was 3.06 billion tons + net import was 240 million tons), an increase of 6.1% year-on-year. In 2021, China will import about 16 million tons of thermal coal from Indonesia every month. If Indonesia prohibits coal export, it will affect 5.3% of the effective supply of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal. Considering that Australian coal is still limited and the import volume of other countries is limited, it is difficult to make up the gap through other countries in the short term, If Indonesia’s export ban continues for a long time, it may cause the China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal market to return to the balance of supply and demand, or even slightly tight. Due to the recent large decline in China’s coal price, the price of imported coal began to hang upside down slightly, which will greatly limit the enthusiasm of Chinese end users and traders to purchase imported coal. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant investment opportunities.
