At present, the core contradiction of the market is still mainly the expectation of fundamentals under the game stable growth policy. We believe that the interference of peripheral factors such as the Fed’s interest rate increase is secondary. However, we found that even under the background of consistent expectations for steady growth, A-Shares still have differences on the need to worry about risks and opportunities at the current time point. In the process of communicating with various investors, many investors believe that the market will rebound in the short term due to the steady growth policy, but the expectation of economic downward pressure will be better than the expectation of the steady growth policy at a certain stage (or the policy expectation fails). The market shows the characteristics of falling first and then rising with the introduction of stronger steady growth policy, This is indeed very obvious in 2012. At the same time, in the historical A-share profit decline cycle, there is often resistance to the upward market. This mapping to the first half of next year also improves the market risk awareness.
In this regard, we firmly believe that we should not be pessimistic at present. We need more patience at the bottom grinding stage. At present, the market is optimistic about the structural market, and we should be more optimistic about the index after the Spring Festival. In terms of style, we believe that the trend of steady growth for quite a long time to come is clear. In the game of fundamental expectations under the steady growth policy, the market will eventually stand on the side of the policy. We predict that the GDP growth rate next year will pick up compared with the second half of this year, and the “economic bottom” may occur in the second quarter of next year, This determines that the mid-term swing back probability of the CSI 300 index is large, and the style will be further balanced.
For the evaluation of the industrial track, the overall trend of the high boom and high valuation track industry is optimistic in the medium term, but the short-term volatility will be significantly enhanced, maintaining the view of changing time for space. At the same time, we firmly believe that “intelligence” is the preferred industrial track direction for A-Shares in 2022, and take the lead in proposing the layout of “one body and two wings” of intelligent industrial track, with intelligent automobile industry chain as the main body, intelligent manufacturing equipment (military industry chain, AR / VR, intelligent numerical control, industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ) and digital economy (network security, digital twin (including meta universe) Industrial Internet) has two wings. At the same time, driven by the expectation of steady growth, priority is given to focusing on the long logic track, and the green power industry chain with power as the core is still the top priority.
As far as January is concerned, it can be found that public funds have taken the lead in basically upward expectations under the background of stable growth in layout, which is mainly based on the strong correlation between the historical all a valuation level and the year-on-year social finance. This expectation is expected to continue further with the release of social finance data in December. At present, private placement mainly continues to focus on the liquidity expectation under the background of stable growth, and the demand for the elastic sector is still. This deviation will not ease until a consensus is reached on the expectation of economic fundamentals under the stable growth policy. We expect that the steady growth policy in January is unlikely to exceed expectations, and the instructions given by economic data are still unclear. Therefore, the current situation of capital fragmentation will continue. The practice with the highest winning rate should look for the elastic plate in the undervalued value, and it is suggested to differentiate and over match: chemical industry (traditional varieties), medicine, electronics and securities companies.
Overall, the current market needs to wait for key signals such as clear policy expectations, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment. The signal of breaking the situation lies in the implementation of credit extension and domestic demand expansion policies at the beginning of the year and the promotion of covid-19 drugs and strengthening needles. Under the background of consistent expectations for steady growth and relatively loose liquidity, the follow-up needs to focus on the “good start” of the issuance of new funds, and “build a platform for value and grow up”. This round of spring agitation is still worth looking forward to.
Risk tip: the epidemic spread exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
