Start a prairie fire -- straight to the point
Optimistic about A-Shares in 2022, the macro background of recession easing, better equity market, zero performance growth environment, loose liquidity, raised valuation, and the index market can be expected. The main line of the year is the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the prelude is the landing of blue chip stocks. The growth style of small and medium-sized enterprises is dominant, the market value of incremental economy is sinking, the three directions of double carbon, digitization and safety are concerned, the stock economy is the bottom warehouse, and the leader is stable.
The economic work conference is the beginning of everything. Re mention the focus on economic construction. Worrying about insufficient force is over worry. Finance is the first priority, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can be expected. However, in terms of real estate & infrastructure, we expect GDP to increase by 2022 With a narrow range of 5%, more importantly, abundant liquidity encountered scarce growth, all a non-financial returned to the environment of zero growth in performance, and the boom in 2021 turned to stable performance in 2022.
Sufficient residual liquidity. With the decoupling of wide currency and wide credit, limited entity absorption, asset price comparison effect and the comprehensive registration system, the stock market continues to absorb residual liquidity. After the epidemic, the relocation of residents' assets is no longer a story. There is still room for incremental asset relocation outside a shares. High net worth customers are withdrawing their real estate into the stock market, bringing private placement, fixed income + marginal main entry funds.
The market is in a bull market. The gap between the equal weight index (2021 / 12 / 31) and the historical peak in 2015 (2015 / 06 / 12) is only 16%. The structural changes of 4600 listed companies are amazing. Of course, the bull market needs the consensus of economic stabilization expectations. The prelude to 2022 is the landing of blue chip stocks with scarce growth, both in 2015 and 2019. Let's imagine that if Maotai returns to a high level, it may mean the opening of the fishtail market. The main line in 2022 is small and medium-sized prairie fire, which is the expectation of new growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
Start a prairie fire - configuration idea
Valuation is more important than performance in 2022. Undervalued CSI 500, CSI 1000 and mass entrepreneurship and innovation 50 need the cooperation of new catalysts, and even distressed stocks with poor performance are expected to see spring. The largest marginal incremental capital of A-Shares each year determines the market style. Foreign investment in 2017-2019, public offering in 2020-2021, and private placement expansion and two financing expansion brought by high net worth customers in 2022, with small and medium-sized growth dominant.
Beware that the market will eventually return to the high volatility of the horizon. Looking back on 2008 and 2015, which were driven up by liquidity, without the support of fundamentals, the admission of incremental funds also brought increased volatility.
The market value of incremental economy is sinking & broad elasticity, and the bottom position value of stock economy is leading. Zero growth environment, from seeking high to seeking stability.
The industry is equipped with five golden flowers:
1) Double carbon: power operators, power grid construction & energy storage, old cycle transformation;
2) Digitization: meta universe, intelligent driving, aiot + cloud computing;
3) Security: military performance verification, agricultural machinery & farmland & seed industry, new materials under the supply chain, rare earth;
4) core assets: Baijiu price increase, the Internet is expected to landing boots, medical allocation value, aging consumption;
5) Chapter 5: brokerage, specialized, special and new, mandatory consumption and price increase.
Open discussion in other industries: PV & new energy vehicle track, cycle, consumer electronics & telecom operators, automobiles, real estate, banks, etc.
Risk tip: epidemic control is not as expected, and historical experience does not represent the future.
