Macro strategy weekly: the survey of urban depositors shows that the consumption will is still low, and the house price expectation is weak

1、 Last week’s economic and market review:

Last week, the central bank took care of cross-year liquidity, and China’s treasury bond yield fell somewhat. The rise in crude oil prices made the energy and chemical varieties stronger, while the weak terminal demand led to the decline of the black plate.

China’s top five commodity gains and losses: No. 20 rubber 4.84%, asphalt 4.71%, fuel 4.33%, lpg4 17%, crude oil 4.10%; Coke – 7.25%, dynamic coal – 7.23%, methanol – 5.13%, soda ash – 5.02%, thread – 4.63%

The top five (100 million yuan) of precipitation capital inflow and outflow: Shanghai nickel 4.53, crude oil 4.35, asphalt 3.32, pulp 1.52 and Liandou 1.23; Thread -14.09, iron ore -9.45, Hutong -6.68, pp-5.37, hot coil -4.37

Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from the sector (RMB 100 million): non ferrous metals 9.62, energy and chemical industry 0.47, precious metals -3.26, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) -8.27, black building materials -34.29

2、 This week focuses on:

The central bank issued a questionnaire survey report on urban depositors in the fourth quarter of 2021. Our comments are as follows:

First, residents’ Consumption Willingness is still low. It is expected that China’s consumption will remain weak in the first quarter of 2022. Depositors’ willingness to invest is significantly reduced, and the scale of residents’ funds entering the stock market may be marginally reduced. According to the questionnaire survey of urban depositors, the proportion inclined to more consumption increased by 0.7 percentage points to 24.7%, but it is still significantly lower than the level of 28% before the epidemic. It is expected that China’s consumption will still be weak in the first quarter of 2022. The proportion inclined to more investment decreased by 1.6 percentage points. Considering the weakening of the earning effect of the stock market in recent months, the scale of residents’ funds entering the stock market may decrease marginally in 2022.

Second, residents’ expectations of house prices are further weakened, and the demand for speculative house purchase is expected to be further reduced. In the first quarter of 2022, the sales of commercial houses decreased by about 3% year-on-year. According to the survey, the proportion of house price rise in the future is expected to be 16.8%, a further decrease of 3.1 percentage points compared with the previous quarter; It is expected that the proportion of house price decline in the future will increase by 2.5 percentage points to 15.2%. Residents’ expectations of house prices further weakened. Speculative property buyers have an obvious tendency to buy up rather than down, and the demand for speculative property purchase may further decrease in the first quarter of 2022. Recently, the policy level emphasizes the support to meet the reasonable housing demand, which supports the demand for commercial housing. We expect that the sales of commercial housing in the first quarter of 2022 will decrease by about 3% year-on-year.

Risk tip: transmission of Omicron mutant virus

 

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