Key investment points
One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the number of new diagnoses in the world has increased rapidly, and the amount of vaccination has decreased significantly. In the last week, about 5.95 million and 44000 new confirmed cases and deaths of covid-19 pneumonia were recorded worldwide. Compared with the previous week, the new confirmed cases increased by 22.9% and the new deaths decreased by 5.3%. Countries around the world continue to tighten epidemic prevention policies, and New York will further tighten epidemic prevention regulations in public schools, including more nucleic acid testing. France announced that it would require workers to work at home three days a week for three weeks. The total amount of global vaccination decreased significantly this week, and the average value of 7 days decreased by 18% compared with last week. Among them, the vaccination volume in the United States decreased by 68.7% compared with last week, the vaccination volume in Europe decreased by 53.5% compared with last week, and the vaccination rate of booster needle in Europe and America was higher. The latest paper published in nature shows that the Omicron mutant can completely or partially resist the neutralization of all monoclonal antibodies in the experiment. This further proves that there is a large number of escape phenomena in the neutralization of antibody by Omicron.
Overseas: Biden signed the defense authorization act, and the EU may revise the unified debt ceiling. Biden signed the defense authorization act, the European Union or modify the unified debt ceiling. US President Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2022, which authorized US $770 billion in defense spending. EU economic Commissioner Jean tiloni said that the EU is considering amending the stability and growth pact to no longer set a unified debt ceiling and allow member states to set a reasonable debt scale according to their national conditions. Since March 2020, EU member states have unanimously decided to suspend the implementation of the EU stability and growth pact until the end of 2022. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell to 198000, approaching the lowest level since 1969. When the number of renewed jobless claims fell to the lowest since March last year, this shows that despite the outbreak of a new round of epidemic, labor demand is still strong. In October, the FHFA house price index of the United States decreased compared with the previous value, while the year-on-year increase of the house price index of 20 major cities slowed down to 18.4%, which is the third consecutive month that the index slowed down. The above data show that the U.S. real estate market may begin to cool down.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices rose and international oil prices rebounded. The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture rose month on month this week, while the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) food price index of the Ministry of Commerce fell month on month last week. This week, the average prices of 28 key monitored vegetables and 7 key monitored fruits both rose. This week, the average prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rebounded month on month, and the prices of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal and rebar fell.
Liquidity: the bill interest rate rebounded and the US dollar index fell. The short-term capital interest rate is differentiated. The weekly mean value of dr001 decreases by 19.4bp month on month, and the weekly mean value of dr007 increases by 38.6bp month on month. This week, the weekly mean value of Shibor interest rate for three months increased by 0.5bp month on month, the weekly mean value of 3-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased by 5.3bp month on month, and the 1-month, 6-month and 1-year rediscount interest rate of state-owned shares and silver notes hit the bottom and rebounded. This week, the central bank launched 650 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired. The dollar index fell slightly this week and the RMB rose slightly.
Performance of major categories of assets: Europe and the United States led the rise at the end of the year, and the interest rate of treasury bonds decreased. In 2021, the European and American markets rose ahead, the two major indexes of Hong Kong stocks came to the bottom, and the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng technology both fell. In terms of China’s equity, the top three industries for China’s stock growth in 2021 were electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals and chemical industry, and non bank finance and household appliances led the decline of a shares. In 2021, the yields of treasury bonds and CDB bonds showed a volatile downward trend. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 36.8bp and that of 10-year CDB bonds decreased by 45bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
