Manufacturing PMI: the scissors gap between supply and demand narrowed and the expected margin warmed up. With the support of stable growth policies such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and helping enterprises to rescue, the shortage of supply chain and key parts has improved marginally, the cost pressure of enterprises continues to ease, the purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry is 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level of manufacturing industry continues to improve. From the production side, due to the cold weather at the end of the year and the slow recovery at the superimposed demand side, the production index decreased slightly after the sharp rebound last month, but it is still in the expansion range; From the demand side, the new order index has increased compared with the previous value, and the situation has improved, but the recovery is relatively slow under the influence of scattered epidemic and weather factors. The scissors gap between supply and demand has narrowed, and the imbalance between supply and demand has eased. If the scattered epidemic is properly controlled, the manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion range at the beginning of next year, but the marginal will continue to slow down under the influence of seasonal factors. From the perspective of import and export, new export orders fell and the import index rose slightly. In the follow-up, attention should be paid to uncertainty risks such as national relations. From the perspective of the industry, the leading role of high-tech manufacturing industry is still strong, and the boom level of high-energy consuming industries rebounds at a low level. It is expected that high-tech manufacturing industry will continue to maintain a high boom level, and high-energy consuming industries will continue to be limited under the “double control” of total carbon emissions and intensity, but the promotion of “double carbon” will not be too radical next year.
Medium sized enterprises maintain prosperity, and the demand contraction pressure of small enterprises is still great. By enterprise scale, the prosperity of large enterprises improved, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the PMI of small enterprises decreased significantly. The market demand of large and medium-sized enterprises has warmed up, and the prosperity level has increased steadily, but the supply side of medium-sized enterprises has declined, and the supply and demand sides of small enterprises have shown a downward trend, both of which are the lowest level since this year; The purchase price and ex factory price of main raw materials of enterprises of different sizes continued to decline. In terms of import and export, the import and export boom of small and medium-sized enterprises fell. In terms of employees and business expectations, large and small enterprises are cautious about the prospects. With the introduction of supporting policies for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, the prosperity or marginal of small enterprises has improved.
Prices continued to fall, and enterprises became more and more willing to replenish stocks. Policy effects such as “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” continued to show, and the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials fell to the low point since May 2020. At the industry level, the purchase price and product sales price of energy and basic raw materials are low. In December, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology said that they would continue to closely monitor the supply and demand and price changes in the bulk raw material market, flexibly use the national reserves to carry out market regulation, and it is expected that the cost pressure of enterprises will continue to ease. The enterprise raw material inventory and finished product inventory index rebounded, and the supplier delivery time index increased slightly. The prices of some raw materials in the upstream continued to fall, the decline of procurement costs accelerated the preparation of goods, and the willingness to replenish inventory became stronger and stronger.
PMI of non manufacturing industry: the recovery of service industry accelerated, and the prosperity of construction industry fell under holiday factors. In December, the business activity index of non manufacturing industry rebounded, among which the recovery of service industry accelerated. From the perspective of industries, the business activity index of industries greatly affected by the epidemic last month, such as air transportation, catering, culture, sports and entertainment, rose to the expansion range, and the market activity increased; Telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries maintained a high boom range. From the perspective of sub indicators, the demand of service industry has warmed up, but the recovery foundation is not firm; The prices of service inputs and sales prices also continued to fall. The recent outbreak of sporadic epidemic in Xi’an and other places may weaken the pulling effect of holidays on the service industry. Superimposed with weather factors, it is expected that the business activity index of the service industry will be under pressure in January next year. Affected by the cold wave cooling weather and the approaching of the “two festivals”, the business activity index of the construction industry decreased compared with the previous month, and the prosperity fell. The supply and demand of the construction industry has slowed down. In the short term, it may still be affected by seasonal factors, but the medium and long term is stable and good under the development of infrastructure and real estate.
Risk tip: China’s demand recovery is less than expected, and the epidemic change is more than expected.
