Stock index futures:
1. Core logic: last week, the CSI 300 index closed at 4940.37, up 0.39% from the previous value; In terms of turnover, the cumulative turnover last week was 1339 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 267.8 billion yuan, down 7.2 billion yuan from the previous value. The balance of margin trading and securities lending in the two cities was 172.4 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 14.7 billion yuan from the north in the current week. The top five industries were defense and military industry (4.55%), light industry manufacturing (4.20%), basic chemical industry (3.71%), media (3.47%) and home appliances (3.47%); The industries with the last five increases were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 0.15%), banking (- 0.88%), automobile (- 1.52%), coal (- 4.16%) and food and beverage (- 4.77%).
2. Operation suggestion: bargain hunting and long if.
3. Risk factors: the epidemic situation in China exceeded expectations and the economic downturn exceeded expectations.
4. Background analysis: on December 31, the Shanghai Stock Index fluctuated at a high level throughout the day, and subject stocks blossomed at many points. Fly side by side, the Chinese medicine stocks broke out, Saline Lake lithium and photovoltaic were flying together, agriculture, real estate, semiconductor, electricity plate was built, Baijiu shares were in a low state. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.57% to 3639.78, while the gem index fell 0.12. The turnover in the market was 1.06 trillion yuan, a slight increase month on month. The actual net purchase of BEIXIANG capital throughout the day was 4.573 billion yuan.
Important message:
1. Since January 1, the central bank has implemented the continuous conversion of two direct tools, the inclusive small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool and the inclusive small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan. First, convert the Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool into Pratt & Whitney small and micro loan support tool. Second, from 2022, the Pratt & Whitney credit loan support plan for small and micro enterprises will be incorporated into the re loan management of supporting agriculture and supporting small businesses. Create two monetary policy tools directly to the real economy, support financial institutions to postpone the repayment of principal and interest on loans to small and micro enterprises that are temporarily in difficulties, and encourage financial institutions to increase the investment of credit loans to small and micro enterprises.
2. At the beginning of 2022, a large number of new regulations will be officially implemented. Among them, the new national medical insurance drug catalogue was officially launched nationwide, which is expected to reduce the burden of patients by more than 30 billion yuan throughout the year; The judicial auction of real estate is fully incorporated into the purchase restriction, and there is no opportunity for speculation tenants; From now on, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. The quality problems of special parts such as power batteries and driving drive motors will be included in the “New Three Guarantees” policy for household vehicles; China will impose a provisional import tax rate lower than the MFN tax rate on 954 commodities; China’s first mandatory national standard in the field of elderly care services and eight supporting industry standards were implemented simultaneously. In addition, a number of new regulations will also be implemented, such as the family education promotion law, free medical care for military spouses, the “blacklist” of defaulting on the wages of migrant workers and the measures for the administration of import and export food safety.
3. 2021 is a high light year for the issuance of public funds in the settlement mode of securities companies. In the whole year, the issuance share of funds adopting this model reached 186.7 billion, an increase of nearly 80% over 2020, including star products with an initial share of more than 5 billion.
4. According to the economic information daily, industry insiders believe that with the release of the policy, more enterprises will join, and the public offering REITs market is expected to accelerate the expansion. Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, said that in the long run, China’s infrastructure public offering REITs has a large development space. It is expected that with the continuous expansion of the issuance scale, it will attract more investors.
5. According to Shanghai Securities News, the data show that in December 2021, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a sales trading amount of 994.01 billion yuan, and the monthly sales performance decreased by 35.2% year-on-year and increased by 32.4% month on month. In 2021, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a sales trading amount of 11.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Although there are 43 full-scale 100 billion real estate enterprises in 2021, which is the same as that in 2020, the overall sales target completion rate of large-scale real estate enterprises in 2021 is less than 90%, significantly lower than the average level of more than 105% in the past three years.
