Key investment points
Last week (3.7-3.11), the stock index opened low. The Shanghai index fell 4.00% to close at 3309.7 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.40% to close at 1244737 points, the small and medium-sized 100 fell 4.64%, and the gem index fell 3.03%; In terms of industry sector, mining, comprehensive and electrical equipment decreased less; In terms of index and concept board, the index rose first; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1085029 billion, up 12.26% from the previous week, including 14.78% in Shanghai and 10.35% in Shenzhen; In terms of style, large cap stocks have a comparative advantage, with Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 down 4.14% and China Stock Exchange 500 down 4.85%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3228, up 0.06%; In terms of commodities, icewti crude oil fell 5.58%, Comex gold rose 1.31%, Nanhua iron ore index rose 3.07% and DCE coking coal rose 5.27%.
The market probability has bottomed out. Last Wednesday, after the V-shaped reversal, large volume trading and gold needle bottoming, the bottom range of the current round of index downward was preliminarily determined from the technical and emotional aspects. The flood of liquidity during the epidemic pushed up global inflation. During the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European and American countries imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas, and continued to strengthen inflation expectations. At present, the production side of European and American countries has basically recovered to the pre epidemic level, and controlling inflation has become the primary issue of European and American monetary policy. In the short term, considering the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the economy, the Fed has adjusted the pace and intensity of interest rate hike, and the tightening of liquidity may be slow first and then fast in 2022. "Before the crisis in Ukraine, the Fed was supposed to raise interest rates in March. It really believes that it is still appropriate to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March," Fed chairman Powell said recently. This statement is lower than the market's previously expected interest rate increase of 50 basis points in March. In the medium term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to increased inflation or further aggravate the process of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and the trend of overvalued technology stocks and track stocks may be under pressure.
The index may show a U-shaped trend. In the history of a shares, policy bottom, market bottom and economic bottom usually appear in turn. The central economic work conference in December last year put forward the tone of stable growth, the interest rate cut and social finance data in January this year were much higher than expected, and the government work report in 2022 put forward the GDP growth target of 5.5%, which have confirmed the policy bottom for many times, and the subsequent market bottom will also appear. Generally, the growth rate of social finance is 1-2 months ahead of the end of the market. In February, China's social financing scale increased by 1190 billion yuan, compared with 6172.6 billion yuan. Social financing is still in the process of bottoming out for a long time, and there is an expectation of further force in the follow-up monetary policy. We believe that although the current A-share market has been adjusted in place, it is difficult to have a V-shaped reversal trend in the short term. Considering the long transmission period from wide currency to wide credit and the obvious suppression effect of A-share performance, it is expected that the index will still grind the bottom at a low level for 1-2 months, and the probability of A-share market will show a U-shaped trend this year. In February, China increased RMB loans by 1230 billion yuan, with a previous value of 3980 billion yuan. Among them, the increase of medium and long-term loans for residents was negative for the first time in history, indicating that the current demand for house purchase by residents is weak. We look forward to further increase in monetary policy, real estate and infrastructure. China's narrow money (M1) increased by 4.7% year-on-year in February, 6.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month; M2 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month. The growth difference between M1 and M2 also narrowed to - 4.5%. Under the steady growth policy, the production and operation of enterprises are expected to improve.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, the market environment is more complex, and investors should look for deterministic investment opportunities from uncertainty. In 2022, the A-share market is optimistic about the following four sectors in turn (in order): (1) dilemma reversal sector: epidemic reversal sector (aviation / Airport / hotel / Tourism / Cinema) The consumption sector with reversed cost dilemma (household appliances, food and beverage), and the pig breeding sector with reversed industrial cycle; (2) A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (3) New energy and other track stocks. It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with proven performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected; (4) Downstream consumption sector. In November, China's PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year and CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year. The scissors gap is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to food, beverage and household appliances.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets, deterioration of China US relations and risks in emerging market countries.
