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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the risk of imported inflation appears — Comments on the price data in February 2022
Release date: March 9, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Liu Xingchen
The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February remained low, which was mainly related to the continuous decline of pork prices, the disappearance of dislocation factors during the Spring Festival, and the recovery of service industry constrained by the epidemic. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI continued to decline, but the speed slowed down, which is mainly related to the rise of international crude oil and nonferrous metals prices under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Looking ahead, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will start to rise in the second quarter, and the probability of breaking the peak of 3% in the second half of the year will increase. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI still continues the downward trend, but if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to ease in the short term, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may slow down significantly.
In the first quarter, exports can still strongly support the economy — Comments on import and export data from January to February 2022
Release date: March 8, 2022
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Zhao gege
Under the influence of many factors, such as the high base, the disturbance of foreign trade activities by the epidemic and the convergence of supply-demand gap in Europe and the United States, the year-on-year growth rate of exports from January to February fell as scheduled. By item, industrial products and travel related cars, ships and bags performed well, reflecting the resumption of work in Europe and the United States and the accelerated recovery of residents’ travel. From January to February, the trade surplus increased by 19.5% year-on-year. It is expected that net exports in the first quarter will still make a great contribution to the economy. But for the whole year, the export growth rate will fall back to 5%. In terms of rhythm, exports were still resilient in the first half of the year, and there was great downward pressure in the second half of the year.
