Strategy week view 2022 issue 10: rising demand for capital hedging

Overseas geopolitical conflicts continued, and the main stock indexes of A-Shares fell collectively: from March 7 to March 11, the main stock indexes of A-Shares fell collectively. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00% to close at 330975 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.40%, the gem index fell 3.03%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 4.22%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 3.48%. This week, Shenwan level industries collectively fell, among which social services, household appliances and non-ferrous metals led the decline, while comprehensive, power equipment, food and beverage led the decline.

The frequent occurrence of European and American sanctions against Russia and the aggravation of market risk aversion: the continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the frequent occurrence of European and American sanctions have affected the risk appetite of the A-share market. The average daily trading volume of the two markets during the week was 1085654 billion yuan, an increase of about 12.24% over last week. This week, the market's risk aversion increased, investors' panic caused asset selling, and the turnover rate of the main broad stock index fluctuated upward. By industry, affected by the spread of the epidemic in China, the pharmaceutical and biological sector was active this week, with a turnover of 552411 billion yuan, ranking first. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals ranked second and third, with a turnover of 522984 billion yuan and 371034 billion yuan respectively.

Investment suggestion: under the influence of the continuous disturbance of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high wave dynamics of the global financial market continued, superimposed on the rebound of the Chinese epidemic in many places, the confidence of the A-share market weakened significantly, and the pressure on the net outflow of funds increased. The financial data in February was lower than expected, in which the credit performance was significantly lower than expected, and the medium and long-term loans of residents rarely had negative growth. The market is worried about the effect of wide credit again, and the financing problem of enterprises needs to be solved. However, the task of "steady growth" was re emphasized at the two sessions. Under the requirements of the 5.5% GDP growth target and quantitative indicators such as new employment, it is expected that the follow-up macro-control policies will be further strengthened and more accurately support the fields related to steady growth. Recently, a number of companies disclosed the operation from January to February, demonstrating their confidence in the development of enterprises. The annual performance report for 2021 will also be released soon. It is expected that enterprises with good fundamentals, policy support and performance support will become the first choice for risk aversion funds. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the logic of the main line of "steady growth" remains unchanged, and large enterprises with moat advantages need to be selected in the sector; 2) The enterprise is in a relatively stable period of development, which is worthy of attention.

Risk factors: increased geopolitical risks; The epidemic situation worsened; The economy fell faster than expected

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