The US dollar index continued to rise, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed significantly, Ted interest rate spread continued to widen, and China’s overall capital balance was loose. Last week (2022030720220311), the US dollar index continued to rise. As of March 8, 2022, the net long position fell. The interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed significantly, the nominal interest rate of US bonds rose sharply, the real interest rate fell somewhat, and inflation expectations continued to rise. For overseas, Ted’s interest rate spread has widened significantly, which is at a relatively high level in history as a whole, and overseas liquidity has further tightened; For China, the overall balance of inter-bank funds is loose, the liquidity stratification is not obvious, and the term spread (10y-1y) is slightly narrowed. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of most industries has rebounded, among which the trading heat and volatility of construction, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, electric power and public utilities are at a relatively high level in history; In terms of research, computer, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile and clothing, food and beverage, household appliances, Dianxin, medicine, banking and other sectors rank first.
The northward allocation sector / trading sector continued to sell significantly, and the northward allocation sector is more inclined to allocate the middle and upstream sectors. Last week (2022030720220311), the northbound allocation market sold a net 13.355 billion yuan, and the northbound trading market sold 19.468 billion yuan of a shares. On a daily basis, the northward allocation / trading sector continued to sell A-Shares net, and the rising political risk and tightening overseas liquidity were the main reasons behind it. In the industry, the consensus between northbound trading and configuration is to net buy military industry, construction and other industries, and net sell finance, food and beverage, medicine, electronics, computer, chemical and other industries. In terms of style, there are differences in the value sector of Beishang configuration / trading sector in the middle sector, while net sales of other types of style sectors at the same time. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the northbound allocation board sold Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2.515 billion yuan, 1.498 billion yuan and 300 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, last week, the allocation sector mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector. From the perspective of the stocks with the most net purchases last week, the northward allocation sector mainly buys resources, photovoltaic, green power and other medium and upper stocks.
The activity of the two financial institutions continued to decline, which was equivalent to the level in late January 2022. Last week (2022030720220311), Liangrong net sold 14.746 billion yuan, mainly buying coal, consumer services, finance, light industry and other sectors, and mainly selling medicine, military industry, electronics, nonferrous metals, Dianxin and other sectors. The proportion of financing purchases in consumer services, electricity and utilities, construction, non bank and other sectors increased month on month. Except for consumer services, the proportion of financing purchases in the above sectors was below the historical center. In terms of style, Liangrong net buys the large / small market value and net sells other styles.
The position of public offering rebounded, Jimin continued to “copy the bottom”, and the wide-based ETF mainly held by institutions continued to be greatly net redeemed. Last week (2022030720220311), the A-share position of the active partial stock fund rebounded as a whole. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its positions in electronics, consumer services, machinery, household appliances, petroleum and petrochemical, building materials, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other sectors, and mainly reduced its positions in medicine, electricity, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Last week, ETFs mainly held by individuals were net subscribed, and the scale increased month on month compared with last week, which means that Jimin may still choose the “bottom reading” fund, and the market may still be in the state of “negative feedback” (i.e. the state of “selling up and buying down”). Among them, ETFs related to new energy, technology, medicine, consumption and other sectors were mainly net subscribed, which are related to financial real estate ETFs related to military industry and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) lies in the buying cycle and some sectors such as science and technology and consumption, while there are differences in medicine, new energy, finance, real estate, military industry and other sectors. It is worth mentioning that last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were net redeemed as a whole, and they were mainly broad-based. For trend traders, Liangrong mainly buys finance, some cycles and some consumption sectors; Northward trading mainly bought military industry, construction, building materials, coal and other sectors. On the whole, all kinds of investors have a relatively high degree of consensus in the construction sector, followed by electricity and public utilities, steel, military industry, household appliances, coal and other sectors. It is worth mentioning that at present, active partial equity funds choose to “copy the bottom” in most industries, while long-term funds represented by the northward allocation sector are more cut from the middle and lower reaches sector (consumption, medicine, etc.) to the middle and upper reaches sector (resources, photovoltaic, green electricity, etc.). Energy shock and sluggish environment may be becoming a global consensus.
Risk tip: measurement error.
