Main points
Macro view:
1. The main driver of stagflation pressure in the United States comes from energy. Before the liberalization of energy supply, the U.S. economy is under great pressure and economic policy is facing a dilemma. The huge inflationary pressure has restrained the growth of real consumption in the United States, and the pressure of energy prices has restrained the growth of residents' income. At the same time, it has expanded the pressure of residents' expenditure, and the overall economic expectation has deteriorated.
2. After the adjustment of energy policies in Europe, the growth rate of global capital expenditure is expected to accelerate upward. Under the background of relatively stable energy prices, China's exports are expected to exceed expectations.
3. China's steady growth will continue to develop, manufacturing and consumption are expected to take the lead in stabilizing and recovering, and investment will gradually bottom out.
Market view:
1. The expectation of steady growth rises, and the time window for the index to stabilize and recover opens.
2. The growth sector has entered the period of strategic layout. It needs to rebound in the short term, with appropriate cost performance in the medium term and benefiting from the slowdown of economic growth in the long term.
3. The long-term coexistence and steady growth with the virus are expected to improve the medium and long-term expectation of consumption. Optimistic about the sector:
1. Be optimistic about new energy, food and beverage, coal, military industry and real estate property leaders of central enterprises.
Shanghai and Shenzhen technology index 300, Nasdaq 100. Market resumption: the performance of various style sectors this week was poor, led by financial style. All shenwanyi industries fell, with social services, household appliances and non-ferrous metals leading the decline.
Index performance: this week, the main market indexes fell across the board, led by China Securities 500. Gem index, Kechuang 50, quana, Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Composite 50, Shanghai Shenzhen 300 and China Securities 500 fell by 3.03%, 3.48%, 3.96%, 4.00%, 4.14%, 4.22% and 4.85% respectively.
Style performance: large, medium and small cap stocks fell, and small cap stocks fell the most; All valuation sectors fell, led by overvalued sectors. This week, large cap stocks, medium cap stocks and small cap stocks fell by 5.42%, 5.36% and 5.45% respectively. In the valuation sector, the overvalued sector, the medium valuation sector and the undervalued sector fell by 5.24%, 5.11% and 4.91% respectively.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover and turnover rate of major indexes increased month on month. The trading industry is significantly divided. Northbound funds flowed out sharply this week. During the week, the top three main inflow industries of land stock connect were: public utilities, national defense and military industry, and architectural decoration; The net outflow of power equipment, food and beverage and banking industry is large. The number of shares held by the northward capital industry increased week on week. The top three are: electronics, architectural decoration and national defense industry; The top three decreases are: banking, steel and non bank financial industry. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF option increased by 5.96 percentage points, and the current value is 22.02%; The current value of the standard & Poor's 500 volatility (VIX) index is 30.75, down 1.23 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend - 10-year Treasury bond is currently - 0.63%, up 0.11 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 81%; The current value of the implied equity risk premium (ERP) of A-Shares is 2.87%, up 0.28 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 89%, and has remained up for four consecutive weeks. The recent reduction of market risk appetite puts pressure on a shares.
Risk tips
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected; Intensifying geopolitical conflicts, etc
