Event overview:
The Bureau of statistics released the data of social zero and real estate from January to February: 1) in terms of social zero, the growth rate of social zero, furniture, cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry and online social zero from January to February was + 6.7%, – 6.0%, + 11.1%, + 7.0%, + 19.5% and + 10.2% respectively year-on-year; In December, the growth rate of social zero, furniture, cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry and online social zero was + 1.7%, – 3.1%, + 7.4%, + 2.5%, – 0.2% and – 0.8% respectively year-on-year. 2) In terms of real estate, from January to February, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were – 14.9%, – 9.6%, – 13.8% and + 3.7% respectively year-on-year; In December, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were – 33.1%, + 0.8%, – 19.5% and – 11.9% respectively year-on-year.
Analysis and judgment:
Household: the completed amount of development investment increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of household retail decreased.
Retail end: from January to February, the new construction, completion and sales area of residential buildings decreased under policy regulation. From January to February, the newly started area, completed area, sales area and investment in real estate development in China were – 14.9%, – 9.6%, – 13.8% and + 3.7% year-on-year respectively, with a growth rate of + 18.2pct, – 10.4pct, + 5.7pct and + 15.6pct respectively compared with December of 21. Affected by the debt pressure of real estate enterprises, cash flow pressure, credit risk and the tightening of the real estate market, the data of new construction, completion and sales of real estate from January to February decreased year-on-year; Since 2022, the favorable signals of various real estate policies have been continuous, and the warm wind in the real estate market has been blowing frequently. With the joint efforts of all parties, we have continued to stabilize the land price, house price and expectation, the operation of the real estate market has undergone positive changes, and the downward trend of real estate has slowed down. According to the prediction of ovicloud, the newly started residential area in 22 years is conservatively estimated to be about 1.46 billion M2 (about 12 million units) as the same as that in 21 years. Considering market demand and other comprehensive upward factors, it is estimated that the newly started residential area will be 1.5-1.55 billion M2 (about 12.5-13 million units), providing more protection for China’s people’s livelihood. From the perspective of furniture retail, the retail sales of furniture above the quota from January to February were – 6.0% year-on-year. Affected by the high base in the same period last year, the growth rate of furniture retail decreased.
Project side: according to ovicloud, in January 2022, the number of newly opened commercial residential hardcover projects / rooms was 123 / 89000 units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 56.1% / – 64.5%. In January 2022, the hardbound project of commercial housing opened. Based on the analysis of the size structure of the number of rooms, it is mainly distributed in East China and second tier cities, accounting for 55.3% and 61.0%. Shanghai, Hefei and Hangzhou became the top three cities in China in terms of opening scale in January. In the short term, the scale of hardbound houses has decreased, which is mainly affected by the policies of the real estate market and the shortage of funds of real estate companies; In the medium and long term, driven by national policies, market environment, the new hardcover policy and other factors, the fine decoration market will continue to rise, and the prospect is promising; It is estimated that the total scale will continue to grow in 2022, about 3.5-4 million units, and the penetration rate will further increase to about 40%. During 20232024, the proportion of fine decoration will be more than half. The sustainable development of hardbound housing market will also bring development opportunities for b-end business of household enterprises.
Cosmetics: from January to February, the retail sales of cosmetics increased year-on-year. From January to February, the retail sales of cosmetics increased by + 7.0% year-on-year, compared with + 4.5pct in December. The Spring Festival consumption led the superposition of online annual goods Festival promotion activities, and the growth rate of cosmetics consumption increased. At present, China’s cosmetics industry is still in an upward development cycle, benefiting from the dual release of consumer population and customer unit price in the medium and long term, the creation of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels, the continuous release of upgraded consumer demand, and the continuous growth of cosmetics consumption.
Gold and silver jewelry: from January to February, the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increased year-on-year. From January to February, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by + 19.5% year-on-year, compared with + 19.7pct in December. Benefiting from the improvement of investment preservation demand and the Spring Festival peak season, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased significantly from January to February, and the growth rate was in the leading position in the retail category of social consumer goods.
Cultural office supplies: from January to February, the retail sales of cultural office supplies increased year-on-year. From January to February, the retail sales of cultural office supplies increased by 11.1% year-on-year, compared with + 3.7pct in December of 21 years. China’s cultural office supplies market is in a new situation of consumption upgrading. The consumption terminals of cultural office supplies are gradually showing changes such as chain characteristics, professional management, improvement of anti risk ability, improvement of profitability and so on.
Online retail: online retail continues to grow, making a significant contribution to the overall social zero. Online retail sales from January to February were + 10.2% year-on-year; From January to February, online retail accounted for 26.3% of the total social zero, accounting for – 3.4pct compared with December. The epidemic situation has been repeated, consumer behavior has gradually migrated online, and the zero pull of online channels on the overall society is still obvious.
Investment suggestions:
In the household sector, in the short term, although the weak real estate data and the rising cost of raw materials have brought some repression, the industry will maintain steady growth in the medium and long term with the release of demand for second-hand housing, improved housing and affordable housing, and the industry attribute will gradually shift from the post cyclical attribute of real estate to the consumption attribute. Leading enterprises have outstanding advantages in brand, channel, product and production capacity, continue to seize the market share of small and medium-sized enterprises, and their performance growth rate is still outstanding in the real estate chain. It is recommended that Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Minhua holdings, Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) , Xiamen R&T Plumbing Technology Co.Ltd(002790) ; In the cultural office supplies sector, the sunshine procurement policy drives the rapid development of the centralized purchase industry of office stationery. It is recommended that the retail end has Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , which has the channel moat, cultural and creative products to improve profitability, and the rapid development of new business kelip and new retail business; The cosmetics sector has benefited from the “beauty economy”. China’s cosmetics industry maintains a high outlook and has great prospects for domestic products. It is expected to continue to increase its share through multi product, multi category and multi brand strategy. It is recommended that Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) .
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply, the demand growth was lower than expected, and the industry competition intensified.
