Core view
We believe that the trial antigen detection does not mean that the epidemic prevention policy will change from dynamic clearing to "coexistence" within the year. Antigen detection is a useful supplement to nucleic acid detection, which can further enhance the "early detection" in the dynamic clearing policy. However, the economic impact of this round of Omicron clearing process is difficult to hedge through the implementation of antigen detection, and the overweight of epidemic prevention and control will still have a certain impact on the service industry. In January this year, China's unemployment rate has risen to 5.3%, which is very close to the upper limit of the policy target threshold of 5.5%. If the epidemic lasts for a long time, the unemployment rate may have continued upward pressure. The local Chinese new year last year led to the phased rise of the unemployment rate in February, which had a certain disturbance to the monetary policy. We suggest that we also need to pay attention to the impact of the deterioration of employment on the policy this year.
Antigen detection does not represent the coexistence of epidemic prevention policies during the year
Recently, the State Council issued the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial) (hereinafter referred to as the scheme). In the future, nucleic acid detection will still be used as the basis for the diagnosis of covid-19 virus infection, but antigen detection can be used as a supplementary means for screening specific populations, which is conducive to improving the ability of "early detection". The recent outbreak has recurred in China, with 1807 newly confirmed cases on March 12. We believe that one of the important purposes of antigen testing is to reduce the work pressure of the surge in the number of nucleic acid testing in the case of the recent recurrence of the epidemic. From the perspective of the plan itself, the overall mechanism of epidemic prevention and control has not been adjusted. We believe that the introduction of antigen detection does not represent the coexistence of epidemic prevention policies during the year. The main policy for China to deal with the epidemic will still be "dynamic clearing" during the year, especially before the 20th National Congress.
Antigen detection is a useful supplement to nucleic acid detection
The strong transmissibility of Omicron virus will bring new challenges to China's current dynamic clearing policy. First, whether the current detection system can effectively respond to the short-term large-scale spread of the epidemic, and second, how to maintain large-scale normal detection once the epidemic breaks out. The plan specifies that antigen testing is applicable to three groups of people: medical personnel in grass-roots medical institutions, isolation observers and community residents with self-testing needs, puts forward the access to testing reagents, and formulates the disposal management process after testing positive. We believe that the arrangement of relevant rules is conducive to promoting the connection between antigen detection and nucleic acid detection. At the same time, the health commission made it clear that "nucleic acid detection is still the basis for the diagnosis of covid-19 virus infection, and antigen detection can be used for screening of specific populations as a supplementary means". From a comprehensive point of view, antigen detection is an important supplement to nucleic acid detection under China's current dynamic clearing policy.
Antigen detection solves the problem of early detection in dynamic clearing policy
On March 13, sun Chunlan, vice premier of the State Council, pointed out that the monitoring mode of "antigen screening and nucleic acid diagnosis" should be promoted according to the transmission characteristics of Omicron. The people can buy the test by themselves, which is conducive to early detection and improve the sensitivity of monitoring and early warning. Omikron has the characteristics of immune escape, fast transmission speed and strong transmission power. The number of asymptomatic infections in this round of epidemic increased significantly, which is easy to lead to a wider spread of the epidemic before it is found, making it more difficult to prevent and control the epidemic. We believe that compared with nucleic acid detection, antigen detection is more convenient and timely for residents' self-examination. If the purchase cost is reduced and the antigen detection results are mutually recognized in the future, it will be more conducive to early detection of epidemic situation, improve the implementation efficiency of dynamic zeroing policy, reduce the scope of epidemic spread through early detection, and reduce the difficulty and cost of dynamic zeroing.
The economic impact of Omicron clearing is unlikely to be hedged by antigen detection
Local outbreaks have been repeated, and China's "dynamic clearing" policy will not be shaken in the short term. Recently, epidemic control has been greatly strengthened in areas with more serious outbreaks. On March 13, Shenzhen announced that the city's buses and subways were shut down, and the city's personnel did not leave the City unnecessarily; Shanghai requires citizens not to leave Shanghai unless necessary. From March 14, all passenger stations in Shanghai will be suspended. Measures such as restrictions on aggregation and home isolation will have a direct impact on the service industry and have a certain negative impact on the economy in the first quarter. The core purpose of antigen detection is to alleviate the burden of the medical system caused by the excessive workload of nucleic acid detection, improve the ability of "early detection" and moderately reduce the scope of repeated detection. However, whether its effectiveness can reach the same level as nucleic acid detection remains to be verified in practice. With the local deterioration of the epidemic situation, the requirements for nucleic acid detection by personnel mobility across the country are still relatively strict, There is still a rigid demand for nucleic acid detection in the market, so antigen detection is difficult to effectively hedge the negative impact of the epidemic in the short term.
In the follow-up, we should pay attention to the impact of employment on policies
This round of epidemic has a wide range of transmission and a large number of confirmed cases. Many provinces and cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Jilin have raised epidemic prevention and control measures to limit aggregation and flow, and some offline consumer places have been closed, which will have a certain impact on the service industry in the short term, and then have an impact on the jobs created in the service industry, such as restaurant employees and online taxi drivers. In fact, since the fourth quarter of last year, due to the downward pressure on the economy, the profitability of enterprises has fallen, and the demand for employment has shrunk. Superimposed on the adjustment of industrial policies such as double reduction of education and antitrust of platform economy, the unemployment rate has increased from 4.9% in October 2021 to 5.3% in January 2022, which is very close to the upper limit of the policy target threshold of 5.5%. If the epidemic lasts for a long time, the unemployment rate may have continued upward pressure. The local Chinese new year last year led to the phased rise of the unemployment rate in February, which had a certain disturbance to the monetary policy. We suggest that we also need to pay attention to the impact of the deterioration of employment on the policy this year.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation worsened beyond expectation; The geopolitical game among big powers has changed beyond expectations; The Fed tightened its policy more than expected.
