The growth rate of social finance decreased, and the new RMB loans fell sharply. In February, the growth rate of social financing stock, new social financing and RMB loans were lower than expected. At the end of February, the stock of social finance increased by 10.2% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The increment of social finance was 1.19 trillion yuan. When the new RMB loans fell sharply, the new social finance increased by 531.5 billion yuan less than that in the same period of last year. Under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday and the weak financing demand due to many uncertain factors, the new RMB loans decreased by 432.9 billion yuan year-on-year. It is expected that under the policy support, real estate sales will gradually pick up; In addition, the issuance scale of new special bonds in March is expected to remain high, and the active fiscal policy will exert significant force, which will effectively ensure the economic recovery in the first quarter. In the 2022 government work report, it is pointed out that to maintain the continuity and enhance the effectiveness of macro policies, but China is facing triple pressure. Overseas geopolitical conflicts continue and inflation rises. The appropriate advancement of China's policies will effectively ensure the stable operation of the economy.
The proportion of direct financing increased, and the off balance sheet financing contracted significantly. In terms of structure, corporate and government bonds increased year-on-year in February, and the proportion of direct financing increased significantly. In February, 668.4 billion yuan of direct financing was added, an increase of 361.8 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 56.17% of the increment of social financing scale in the same period. Among them, corporate bond financing and government bond financing continue to be the main driving forces of direct financing. The new bond financing increased by 202.1 billion yuan year-on-year, with a large year-on-year increase. The marginal recovery of the real estate industry has promoted the financing behavior of real estate enterprises to a certain extent; The financing scale of new government bonds increased by 170.5 billion yuan year-on-year. The issuance of special bonds in 202 was significantly ahead of schedule and accelerated. In February, domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises decreased by 10.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the activity of stock financing decreased significantly. Off balance sheet financing decreased significantly, and the decrease of undiscounted bank acceptance bills was the main reason, reflecting the weak financing demand of the real economy.
The demand for corporate loans weakened, and the medium and long-term loans of residents turned negative for the first time. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. In February, the loans of enterprises (Institutions) increased by 124 million yuan, of which the medium and long-term loans of enterprises decreased by 594.8 billion yuan year-on-year. Under the background of many global uncertainties, geopolitical risks, supply chain problems and the spread of epidemic in China, the confidence of enterprises in the future declined; After the holiday factors subsided, the short-term loans of enterprises increased by 161.4 billion yuan year-on-year in February, and the bill financing increased by 490.7 billion yuan year-on-year. In February, household loans decreased by 479.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Consistent with the judgment of last month, due to the seasonal factors of the regression of the Spring Festival and the negative impact of the epidemic, the new short-term loans of residents turned negative for the first time after February 2021. It is expected that the multi site epidemic will continue to have a negative impact on subsequent residents' consumption and short-term loans. The general trend of non speculation in housing remains unchanged. The medium and long-term loans of residents turned negative for the first time, with an increase of 457.2 billion yuan year-on-year. On the one hand, it is affected by seasonal factors in the off-season of seasonal real estate sales after the Spring Festival. On the other hand, it is also affected by seasonal decline in February after more growth of long-term loans in mid January. The medium and long-term loans of subsequent residents may rise under the marginal recovery of the property market.
The growth rate of M2 was lower than expected, and the scissors gap narrowed significantly. In February, M2 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month, lower than expected. In February, RMB deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, affected by the consumption and production off-season during the Spring Festival holiday, household deposits decreased by 3.55 trillion yuan year-on-year; The willingness of new investment decreased, and the deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 2.56 trillion yuan year-on-year; Fiscal expenditure was relatively slow, and fiscal deposits increased by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year. M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded compared with the previous value. The growth difference of m2-m1 in February narrowed significantly compared with the previous month. It is expected that the prudent monetary policy will be reasonable and abundant, and the M2 growth rate will stabilize.
Risk tip: China's demand is less than expected, and financial supervision is becoming stricter.
