Key investment points
In February 2022, the social finance increased less year-on-year, of which bond financing was the main contribution, while RMB loans constituted a significant drag on social finance. Specifically, the total amount and structure of credit have weakened: on the one hand, in terms of total amount, February is the traditional small month of credit. With the influence of the high base in the same period last year, the increase of RMB loans has changed from more to less year-on-year; On the other hand, structurally speaking, although the new loans in February are still mainly contributed by the enterprise sector, the enterprise loans are driven by bill financing, and the credit demand of the real economy sector is weak; In the case of poor real estate sales in the residential sector, the new medium and long-term loans have directly turned negative, which is a new low since data statistics. From the financial data in February, the effect of credit easing has not yet appeared, and the policy may need to be further overweight. We expect that in the case of strong demand for steady growth, the easing measures are expected to continue to work. With the fading of the impact of the high base, the growth rate of social finance may also regain its upward trend.
Social finance turned to less growth year-on-year. In February 2022, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 531.5 billion yuan. From the perspective of sub items: in February, the year-on-year increase in corporate bond financing continued to expand to 202.1 billion yuan, and the year-on-year increase in government bonds continued to increase by 170.5 billion yuan, which are the main contributions to the increase of social finance this month; In February, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 908.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 432.9 billion yuan from the previous month, which is one of the main drag items of social finance increment; Domestic stock financing increased by 10.8 billion yuan year-on-year from more to less. In non-standard financing, undiscounted acceptance bills decreased by 486.7 billion yuan year-on-year, which is another major drag on social finance. Entrusted loans decreased by 2.6 billion yuan year-on-year, and trust financing decreased by 18.5 billion yuan year-on-year.
Residents' new medium and long-term loans turned negative. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.8 billion yuan from more to less. Among them, loans to the residential sector decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 479 billion yuan. In particular, medium and long-term residential loans, which increased by more than 700 billion yuan last month, decreased by about 46 billion yuan, the first negative turn since data statistics. In terms of year-on-year changes, both short-term loans and medium and long-term loans in the residential sector also recorded a small increase, of which the year-on-year small increase of short-term loans decreased to 22 billion yuan, and the year-on-year small increase of medium and long-term loans continued to expand to 457.2 billion yuan. On the one hand, there is the impact of the high credit base under the hot real estate sales in the same period last year. On the other hand, the continuous decline of real estate sales data since the beginning of the year also confirms the weak credit demand of the residential sector. Loans to the enterprise sector increased by 1.24 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year increase narrowed to 40 billion yuan. From the sub item performance, the short-term loans of enterprises continued to increase by 161.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and the medium and long-term loans increased by 594.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while the bill financing performance was strong, and the year-on-year increase increased to 490.7 billion yuan, which was the main driving item of enterprise loans. The continued high growth of bill financing also reflects that the credit demand of the real economy is still not high.
M2 growth rate fell and M1 growth rate rebounded. In the context of the high base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in February decreased from an increase to 9.2%, and the year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits significantly expanded to 1448.1 billion yuan, reflecting the forward force of fiscal policy this year. The year-on-year increase in deposits of resident departments changed from an increase to a decrease of 3552.3 billion yuan, and the year-on-year increase in deposits of enterprise departments changed from a decrease to an increase of 2558.9 billion yuan. Affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival holiday, the growth rate of M1 rebounded to 4.7%, and the difference between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and M1 fell to 4.5% in February. However, in combination with the situation in the first two months, the degree of capital activation may still not be high.
The growth rate of social finance has changed from up to down. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance stock was 10.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the growth rate of the previous month, which was mainly affected by the high base in the same period last year. It had rebounded for three consecutive months before. After excluding the impact of government bonds, the growth rate of social finance also fell to 9.1% from the previous month. We expect that in the context of the increased implementation of monetary policy, there is still sufficient room for monetary policy throughout the year. With the fading of the high base effect, the growth rate of social finance is expected to regain its upward trend.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
