Event:
On March 11, the central bank released monetary and financial data for February 2022: in February, new loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan; Social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan, and the growth rate of social finance stock was 10.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Comments:
Social finance fell in February, so there is no need to be too pessimistic; With the steady growth effect, the “economic bottom” is imminent
Social finance fell in February, so there is no need to be too pessimistic. In February, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan, of which RMB loans and undiscounted acceptance bills were significantly dragged down; Most of the data are interpreted pessimistically by the market, which we think is unnecessary. After a large amount of credit at the beginning of the year, the delivery fell back in February, and even the rhythm was slightly controlled, which has also occurred in history; The monthly fluctuation of the data at the beginning of the year should not be over interpreted. The total credit in January and February exceeded 5.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan year-on-year. It is also necessary to track the changes in March.
The weak demand of the residential sector has long been a “consensus”, but the negative value of the new medium and long-term loans for the first time may be related to factors such as the recurrence of the epidemic. In February, the net decrease of medium and long-term loans of new residents was 45.9 billion yuan, which was the first negative value since the data were available. On the one hand, due to the overall weak demand for house purchase, the medium and long-term loans of new residents in January also pointed to a similar result, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 200 billion yuan; On the other hand, such an extreme situation may be similar to that in February 2020. In February this year, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country repeated, or led to a significant reduction in house viewing and house purchase activities.
The demand of enterprises is not good, and it is not so bad when the finance has not yet made obvious efforts. In February, the phenomenon of bill impulse was still prominent, and the sharp decline in the interest rate of high-frequency bills had long been given guidance; The medium and long-term loans of new enterprises were 505.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 594.8 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease, which was largely affected by the high base of last year, and the absolute value was equivalent to the average value of the same period in 2019 and the same period in history. According to the data at the beginning of the year, steady growth is more manifested in the “accumulation of capital”. With the implementation of the effect of steady growth, physical demand may gradually step out of the “negative feedback” and enter the “positive cycle”.
Reiterate the view that the “policy bottom” is solid and the “economic bottom” is imminent. There is no need to be too pessimistic about the economy. The “policy bottom” has been consolidated. Do not underestimate the determination of “stable” policy, nor question the effect of stable growth. There is a time lag from fund-raising to landing. Recently, high-frequency indicators such as cement volume and price have shown signs of improvement. Continue to emphasize that the “economic bottom” may appear around the first quarter, and the economy may improve significantly month on month in the second quarter and year-on-year in the third quarter.
Routine tracking: social finance is expected to be low, credit increases less year-on-year, dragged down by residents, M1 rebounds and M2 falls
New social finance increased less year-on-year, credit and off balance sheet bills were significantly dragged down, and bond financing was supported. In February, the newly added social finance decreased by 531.5 billion yuan to 1.19 trillion yuan year-on-year, of which RMB loans and off ticket bills decreased by 432.9 billion yuan and 486.7 billion yuan to 908.4 billion yuan and – 422.8 billion yuan respectively year-on-year; Government bonds and corporate bonds increased by 170.5 billion yuan and 202.1 billion yuan to 272.2 billion yuan and 337.7 billion yuan respectively year-on-year; The year-on-year changes in trust, entrustment and stock financing were relatively small, with changes of 18.5 billion yuan, 2.6 billion yuan and – 10.8 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period in 2021.
The year-on-year decrease in new loans was mainly due to the drag of medium and long-term loans, especially on the residential side, and bill financing remained high. Among the sub items, medium and long-term loans and short-term loans of enterprises increased by 594.8 billion yuan less and 161.4 billion yuan more to 505.2 billion yuan and 411.1 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, and bills increased by 490.7 billion yuan to 305.2 billion yuan year-on-year; Residents’ medium and long-term loans and short-term loans decreased by 457.2 billion yuan and 22 billion yuan to – 45.9 billion yuan and – 291.1 billion yuan year-on-year; Non bank loans increased by 161 billion yuan year-on-year.
M1 rebounded sharply and M2 fell slightly. In February, M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, compared with – 1.9% in the previous month, and M2 was 9.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The sharp rise of M1 is related to the base effect of the dislocation of the Spring Festival; In the sub item of deposits, residents’ deposits and non bank deposits increased by 3.5 trillion yuan and 220 billion yuan year-on-year, enterprises increased by 2.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, fiscal deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan year-on-year, or pointed to the need for fiscal expenditure.
Risk tip: the policy effect is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
