Main points
Credit and money grew steadily, slightly lower than expected
During the period when the economy continued to hover at the bottom, the steady trend of credit and monetary growth remained unchanged. Under the money endogenous system, credit and money growth basically depend on the behavior of social business entities, that is, the stability of economy determines the stability of credit and money growth. Affected by the upward inflationary pressure and the shift of overseas monetary policy, the market has significantly tightened expectations for credit and monetary growth in the near future. With the normalization of China's economic operation and the improvement of the complexity of the world economic environment and the international financial pattern, the market expects a high degree of differentiation on how to withdraw the temporary loose monetary policy during the epidemic and the future policy trend, and the differences have been difficult to converge.
The growth of credit and social finance fell seasonally
There has always been an obvious first month effect in China's currency and credit growth. Affected by the factors of the Spring Festival holiday, there are usually large fluctuations in the credit and currency growth in January and February. Therefore, we believe that the recovery of China's monetary growth in January does not mean the rise of liquidity easing; Moreover, the year-on-year performance in terms of the growth rate of credit balance is stable, indicating that the credit creation of the banking system is stable.
The rise and stability of bill financing indicates that the economic vitality remains unchanged
From the change of the new term of the enterprise sector, different from the rapid decline of short-term and medium and long-term loans, the growth of bill financing types has maintained a relatively stable trend. At present, the steady growth of bill financing indicates the stable situation of China's economic operation. In terms of the business nature of bill financing, bill financing more reflects the current economic activities. The sustained and stable growth of bill financing also indicates the stable pattern of China's economy from one side.
Monetary policy has temporarily entered the observation period
From the perspective of trend, there is still an internal demand for "double reduction" (interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction) of China's currency during the year, but the timing of policy introduction may be delayed due to the rising pressure of commodity prices caused by geopolitical impact in the short term. According to the analysis framework of the author's currency "dichotomy", the changes in the current world economy and international financial situation may promote China's currency to make further efforts to adjust the distribution of "cheap" currency and liquidity.
Risk tips
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has expanded, China's inflation has risen higher than expected, the international financial situation has changed, and China's monetary policy has changed more than expected.
