Since the outbreak, China's manufacturing supply chain has accelerated reconstruction: trade data point to three modes of supply chain change: regionalization, represented by machinery and electronic products, and China's export and supply chain trade turn to Asia. It is consistent with the trend of China accelerating its integration into the regional industrial chain under the diversified procurement of "China plus one" by large multinational machinery and electronics enterprises in recent years. Decentralization is represented by textile and other labor-intensive products: China's exports are still inclined to the Asian region, but the industrial chain trade slows down and the internal substitution of low-income countries increases; Localization is represented by automobile and resource intensive products: China's industries and exports are still dominated by local products, and the proportion is rising. The localization level of semiconductor and other subdivided industries has also increased rapidly.
Supply chain trade is an important reason to promote China's export performance beyond expectations: China's strong trade in the past two years is supported by the global demand for machinery and scientific and technological products, while the super average performance of exports benefits from the changes of supply chain. China's trade with Asia rose the fastest, with intermediate exports accounting for two-thirds of the growth. Mechanical and electrical products are China's largest export industry. The regionalization trend of "China plus one" means the rise of transnational industrial segmentation and trade intensity. Driven by new energy vehicles, the automobile industry has become a new export bright spot and enhance the export potential in the future.
The change of supply chain is consistent with the direction of industrial cycle. The mechanical and electronic fields are most supported by global demand and trade. Deep Participation in regional supply chains is the key to the incremental growth of the industry. The proportion of China's added value in regional trade has also increased, which is conducive to the profitability of enterprises. Automobile and resource intensive sectors focus more on China's environment: benefiting from industry integration and profit improvement in recent years, investment in industrial upgrading is expected to accelerate. The trade trend of decentralized production means that labor-intensive industries are facing more regional competition, and the pressure of upgrading and integration continues.
And hedge the balance of payments pressure. China's supply chain is expected to be limited by the impact of the epidemic. In the short term, the economic impact brought by geopolitics is the biggest risk. At present, it is not enough to push the global economy into recession. With the expansion of global demand and the dividends brought by the reconstruction of supply chain, it is expected that trade will remain strong, hedge the impact of commodity prices, and support China's foreign surplus and RMB exchange rate.
