Summary of this week and configuration suggestions for next week
The prospect of the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain, and the US and European central banks have accelerated tightening to deal with inflation. The US CPI in February, released this week, rose 7.9% year-on-year, hitting a new high in 40 years; It rose 0.8% month on month, the highest since November 2021. The data show that the inflation pressure in the United States is huge, and the inflation in February has not fully reflected the situation after the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As global commodity prices continue to rise, inflation in the United States may be higher in the coming months, which may accelerate the pace of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the European Central Bank held an interest rate meeting on Thursday to significantly improve its forecast for inflation in 2022 and announced that it would end its bond purchase plan at a faster speed. Europe is highly dependent on Russian energy. The soaring prices of oil, natural gas and other energy will drive the inflation in the euro zone to rise significantly. The European Central Bank has released hawkish signals against the previous state. The US dollar index rose 0.62% to 99.13 this week under the combined influence of geopolitical risks, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and other factors. On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Zelensky said he knew that NATO would not accept Ukraine, no longer tangled about joining NATO, and agreed to negotiate with Russia on the dancing area. This news boosted the market risk appetite. On Wednesday, the world’s major stock indexes rebounded sharply, and the US index fell sharply by 1.18%. However, there was no positive progress in the negotiations between Japan, Russia and Ukraine in the subsequent trading days. In addition, the United States and Europe continued to increase sanctions against Russia, which led to the rise of risk aversion again. The soaring inflation in February also boosted the rise of the US index. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there had been “some positive changes” in the negotiations with Ukraine, but did not talk about specific details. The news boosted European stock markets, but the three major U.S. stock indexes still closed lower, as the United States increased energy and financial sanctions against Russia. In terms of commodities, boosted by rising geopolitical tensions, Comex gold futures rose 1.31% to US $1992.3/oz this week and once rose to US $2078.8/oz on Tuesday. However, the rise of gold price narrowed due to the recovery of market risk appetite and the continuous rise of the US index on Wednesday. In addition, the easing of tensions between Russia and Ukraine also led to the rise and fall of international oil prices. The US oil contract fell 5.7% in April and the oil distribution contract fell 4.72% in May. The latest news on Sunday showed that Ukrainian negotiators said that at present, the two sides are close to reaching a compromise on signing relevant agreements.
The oil and gas embargo imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia has raised the pressure of global inflation. Affected by the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of corn, soybeans, crude oil, precious metals and other commodities have increased, affecting the middle and lower reaches of relevant industries; The speed of pig marketing continues to accelerate, resulting in the recent market pork supply is still relatively sufficient, and the downward trend of pig price continues. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine cannot be resolved and the European and American strike measures against Russia continue, the PPI probability will continue to expand in the next two months. In terms of foreign trade, the export growth rate remained at a high level, mainly due to the high Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) of mobile phones and mechanical and electrical products and the export of some bulk commodities. The import growth rate fell lower than expected, mainly due to the higher base last year and the sharp decline in the import amount of iron ore, which affected the overall growth rate lower than expected.
This week, the Central Bank of China invested 760 billion yuan in the open market. In terms of financial data, the overall performance of financial data in February was poor, which was much lower than market expectations. The core reason was that the current financing demand of residents, manufacturing industry and real estate industry was in a phased downturn. With the continuous deepening of urban implementation policies and the improvement of credit support, the financing demand of the real estate industry may improve; The financing demand of infrastructure and manufacturing industry is expected to continue to pick up with the support of strong fiscal policies, supporting the recovery of social finance growth.
