Key investment points:
Event: in February 2022, M2 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the previous value was 9.5%. In February, the increment of social financing scale was 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. The increment of social finance and credit scale are slightly lower than market expectations.
The growth rate of M2 has decreased. At the end of February, broad money M2 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, partly due to the high base in the same period of last year and the weak demand for credit financing in February. In terms of specific structure, fiscal deposits increased by 600.2 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating that fiscal expenditure still needs to be strengthened; Household deposits decreased by 292.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5 trillion yuan year-on-year. Narrow money M1 increased by 4.7% year-on-year, from negative to positive compared with the previous month, slightly better than expected. The scissors difference of year-on-year growth between M2 and M1 fell to 4.5% from 11.7% last month. The dislocation of the spring festival may have a great impact.
The growth rate of social finance increment and stock was slightly weaker than expected. In February, the increment of social financing scale was 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan and a month on month decrease of 4.98 trillion yuan, which is weaker than seasonality as a whole. At the end of February, the stock of social financing scale increased by 10.2% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still higher than 10% for four consecutive months. In terms of structure, corporate debt financing and government debt financing under the scope of social finance increased year-on-year, becoming the main contribution to the increment of social finance in February; RMB loans and off balance sheet non-standard items increased less year-on-year, which was a drag. However, combined with the data from January to February, the total social financing increment in the first two months of this year was 7.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 449.9 billion yuan year-on-year compared with 6.9 trillion yuan in the same period last year. Therefore, combined with the two-month data, it is not too pessimistic.
Credit data were also lower than expected, dragging down the formation of medium and long-term loans for residents. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, residents' loans decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, including short-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan. It is also the first time in recent years that there has been a net repayment of residents' medium and long-term loans. In contrast, the new medium and long-term loans for residents in February 2020 were 37.1 billion yuan, only about 1 / 10 of the average value in recent years. Combined with the data of commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities, 2.9 million square meters and 6.62 million square meters were sold in February 2020 and February 2022 respectively, which is also the only two months in which the transaction area in a single month is less than 10 million square meters in recent three years. The main reason behind this is the fermentation of China's epidemic situation and the weak real estate sales due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday. On the corporate side, corporate loans increased by 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan year-on-year. Structurally, corporate short-term loans and bill financing increased by 716.3 billion yuan, an increase of 652.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 594.8 billion yuan year-on-year, the largest decline in nearly a decade, pointing to the unsatisfactory demand for entity financing.
Overall, we believe that the lower than expected social finance in February is mainly due to the credit demand for a "good start" under the "steady growth" of a slight overdraft in January. The continuous superposition of seasonal factors in February led to weak demand for the real economy, and the new RMB loans and off balance sheet financing decreased significantly. The real estate sales end is still weak, but it is expected that with the recovery of financing policy, the real estate is expected to gradually step out of the bottom. 1. According to the data of February, the increment of social finance did not increase less year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of superimposed social finance stock was higher than 10% for four consecutive months since 10% at the end of October 2021, so we don't think we need to be too pessimistic. However, the weak financial data in a single month still reflects the lack of effective demand of the real economy. Under the demand of "stable economic growth", there may be the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in monetary policy, and the subsequent social finance may be expected to pick up
