Macro dynamic comments
China: focus on short-term risks. 1) Monetary policy: the central bank conducts 10 billion yuan of reverse repo every day, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will expire next Tuesday; The central bank announced that the balance profit will be handed over to the central government in accordance with the law this year. Liu Shijin: monetary policy focuses on stabilizing real estate in the short term. 2) Economy: China's CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year in February, and PPI rose 8.8% year-on-year; In dollar terms, in the first two months, China's exports increased by 16.3%, imports increased by 15.5%, and the trade surplus was US $115.95 billion, an increase of 19.5%. 3) Credit: social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in February, with a growth rate of 10.2% and a month on month decrease of 0.3%; Among them, residents' medium and long-term loans were - 45.9 billion yuan, the first negative growth. 4) Risk: strictly implement various measures for epidemic prevention and control. The comprehensive group of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council pointed out that we should resolutely avoid further expansion of the epidemic scale; The average decline of 280 Chinese stocks listed in the United States in the past year was as high as 55.6%.
Overseas: focus on the interest rate negotiation of the Federal Reserve. 1) Monetary policy: the European Central Bank announced that it would end the asset purchase plan (APP) at a faster speed, saying that "the interest rate increase will be carried out for a period of time after the end of the app and will be gradual". 2) Economy: the US CPI rose 7.9% year-on-year in February and the one-year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 5.4% in March, a new high since 1981. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that "the inflation data in the next 12 months will remain at a very disturbing high level". Consumer confidence fell further to 59.7, the lowest level since 2011. 3) Risk: LUNI was forced short and exceeded US $100000. LME decided to cancel all LUNI transactions executed on March 8 and suspend transactions; The United States cancels Russia's "most favored nation treatment"; PIMCO is betting that Russia will not default.
