Review the A-share market last week as the last week of 2021. The market remained high and volatile, with a satisfactory performance. The Shanghai index rose 0.57% to close at 3639.78 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to close at 14857. Gem refers to the flat market closing at 3322.67 points.
For the whole year of 2021, under the sequential disturbance of many factors, the market has always maintained a strong shock pattern. From the trend of the whole year, the Shanghai index has increased by 4.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 2.67%, the gem index has increased by 12.02%, and the annual lines of the three major indexes have closed positive for three consecutive years.
As mentioned by Dongguan securities, last Friday was the last trading day of 2021. The index fluctuated and strengthened, and the market welcomed the "closing red" of 2021. The net inflow of northward funds continues, it is expected that the market outlook is expected to strengthen in repeated shocks, and pay attention to the change of volume energy and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, TMT and other industries.
As for the future, Ping An strategy said that the market is still dominated by game shocks in the short term due to the pressure on fundamentals and the relative restraint of policy strength . In terms of structure, the current market wait-and-see mood is strong, so we need to wait for a new performance growth performance and policy force point in 2022, and pay follow-up attention to the release of the annual report performance forecast of listed companies, as well as the specific measures of steady growth and risk prevention policies. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological innovation and green transformation are the most deterministic direction under the background of industrial upgrading. The high boom track is expected to continue to rise after periodic fluctuation adjustment.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) pointed out that looking forward to the restless spring Market in 2022, suggested that the "spring restlessness" of A-Shares should seize the "double carbon new cycle" and economic changes . The agency said that at present, some investors are worried that the huge IPO of China Mobile will have a negative impact on the market and think there is no need to worry too much. At present, the market is still in the "feasible stage". It is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the "double carbon new cycle" and the medium-term prosperity expectation of the industry under the guidance of the "high-frequency expected prosperity observation model", and layout the restlessness in spring.
In addition, Guokai Securities believes that the spring market has always been a stage for investors to look forward to. In the past three years, except that the market fell sharply after the Spring Festival due to the covid-19 epidemic in 2020, the market trend of the spring Market in the other two years is commendable. for a long time, the market advantage in spring has tended to decline in recent ten years, and the stage with good performance is mainly concentrated in from January to February. Considering the loosening of the central bank's policies since November this year, it is expected that the macro liquidity will be better at the beginning of next year. Therefore, there will be a certain stage opportunity from January to February. Growth stocks over the years have performed relatively well at this stage. Therefore, we can pay more attention to industries such as electronics, computers, power equipment and media. After March, if the macroeconomic data is relatively flat and the performance expectation of Listed Companies in the first quarter is poor, we need to pay attention to risks.
At the same time, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) proposed that the top ten forecasts for 2022 . outlook 1: A-Shares are "dangerous" . Although the profit growth in 2022 is dragged down by the upstream industry, the overall may not be excellent, the Chinese policy is gradually loosening, the overall valuation is not high, the liquidity is supported, the impact of the epidemic is gradually fading out, and the opportunities of A-Shares may outweigh the risks in 2022. The median annual income of A-share equity mutual funds may be significantly higher than that in 2021.
outlook 2: Hong Kong stock "mean return" . Many internal and external factors have led to the Hong Kong stock market losing A-Shares sharply in recent years. The trend of overseas science and technology supervision in 2022 is still worthy of attention, but the peak of China's science and technology supervision policies is gradually passing. The new and old economic valuation of Hong Kong stocks is low, the proportion of short selling transactions is high and lasts for a long time, and the position is low. The direction of Hong Kong's economic development and strengthening its status as an international financial center has not changed, and Hong Kong stocks may usher in a phased and obvious repair in 2022.
outlook 3: growth outperforms value . In the "steady growth" stage of China, the performance of the partial growth sector may be restrained. When the growth expectation is stable, the market style may turn to the partial growth style. Throughout the year, in the environment of low interest rate and weak overall growth, the growth style of sustainable growth may be the focus of obtaining excess returns.
outlook 4: the high prosperity of electric vehicle industry chain and new energy industry will spread to relevant fields . The double carbon trend is deepening day by day, and the high boom of electric vehicle industry chain and new energy in 2022 may spread to power grid, auto parts and other related fields. China's auto parts industry may be walking out of a similar path in China's mobile phone industry chain after 2010. Based on the advantages of large domestic demand market, China's manufacturing industry is stepping out of the road of industrial upgrading, and gradually moving from the previous "three low and one weak" characteristics to "three high and one strong" characteristics.
outlook 5: the pan consumption field may be one of the highlights in 2022 . The impact of the epidemic on services and consumption is greater than that on production and manufacturing. At present, the market is still pessimistic about the consumption field, but the impact of the epidemic may fade out further in 2022. The possible improvement of the epidemic situation may lead to a significant recovery of offline activities. At the same time, in the medium term, China's measures to correct the imbalance in development, adhere to non speculation in housing and housing, and improve the social security and pension system are conducive to the release of consumption potential.
outlook 6: the commodity market is weakening . Although the oil price is still likely to rise against the background that the global economy continues to restart, the supply side adjustment effect brought by the commodity bull market from 2020 will gradually appear, and the overall demand may not be strong. Except for some commodities supported by structural factors, major commodities may lack trend opportunities in 2022, and their performance will be inferior to that in 2021.
outlook 7: the new shares of public funds exceed 3 trillion . Our previous analysis stressed that the asset allocation of Chinese households may be ushering in an inflection point of increasing financial asset allocation, and the scale of wealth and asset management is expected to grow rapidly. In recent years, the management scale of public and private funds has grown rapidly. It is estimated that the new share of public funds may exceed 3 trillion in 2022, and the potential of interconnection to invest in Hong Kong stocks is still large.
outlook 8: the net capital inflow from Shanghai and Shenzhen Hong Kong to the North exceeds 300 billion yuan . In 2021, the net capital inflow of Shanghai Shenzhen Gangtong North / South reached about 432.2/379.1 billion yuan respectively, of which the important direction of net inflow into A-Shares is manufacturing. Considering that overseas liquidity may tighten in 2022, many investors are worried that China is facing the pressure of capital outflow. We judge that "policies are loose inside and tight outside, growth is up and down inside and outside", China is still one of the markets with the best growth opportunities in the world, and the net capital inflow of Shanghai Shenzhen Gangtong northbound may still reach or exceed 300 billion yuan.
outlook 9: the debt problem still deserves attention in 2022 . Factors such as the gradual downward pressure on the overall real estate and the change of local government may still make credit bonds, including local government related debts, the focus of attention in stages.
outlook 10: the increase of US stocks in 2022 will be significantly narrowed . The substantial policy stimulus of the United States after the epidemic has been fully reflected in the stock market, but the current inflationary pressure has been great and the monetary policy has begun to tighten. The United States will face mid-term elections in 2022, and the sustainability of policy stimulus is in doubt. Overall, we judge that after the S & P 500 index has gained 15% - 30% growth in recent three years, the growth will be significantly narrowed in 2022.
In the macro aspect, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) macro team released a research report that the restless reinforcements of spring are not fiscal stimulus, but monetary easing . According to the severe business situation of small and micro enterprises reflected in the manufacturing PMI data in December, macroeconomic policies will make every effort to ensure the market players to stabilize the employment situation. Therefore, it is expected that the focus of fiscal policy in January is tax reduction and fee reduction rather than fiscal stimulus. If LPR interest rate reduction can not effectively reduce the entity financing cost, monetary policy in January will have a stronger impulse to consider greater easing.
In terms of operational strategy, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that we remain optimistic about the market in January, and the three factors of economy, liquidity and policy resonate and actively go long. Among them, the valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of restlessness in spring, and the growth style is expected to become the main line of the market after phased adjustment. In terms of configuration, the growth sector is dominant in the environment of "weak economy + wide currency". After adjustment, the cost performance of the growth sector is good, two directions can be considered, one is the media, military industry, computer and other industries with good performance valuation matching, and the other is to find a more definite direction along the deductive path of the industrial cycle, focusing on software development in the context of automotive intelligence and meta universe It service, optical image and other subdivided fields. The preferred industries in January are: electronics, media, national defense and military industry .
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that in 2022, in the macro environment of economic downturn and relatively abundant macro liquidity, A-Shares lack the internal power of overall trend upward, and the probability of systemic risk is also low, the structural market will still deepen the interpretation, and the style may gradually switch from small and medium-sized market to market value and market growth . First, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks may have been released intensively this year. Under the downward trend of overall profit expectation and high base effect, the callback risk is relatively large. Second, the market growth is expected to maintain a high boom driven by industrial logic. It is suggested to pay attention to the coverage targets such as entrepreneurship 50 and entrepreneurship blue chip. Third, the market value has a strong risk aversion attribute, or can obtain excess benefits under the economic downward trend.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that in January, the balanced allocation of the market is better. three main allocation lines: 1. "Traditional infrastructure + real estate" under the background of "steady growth", such as building materials and real estate; 2) The main investment lines of "high-end manufacturing & hard technology": new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics, etc; 3) Strong themes that benefit from policy (support), such as yuanuniverse (media), traditional Chinese medicine, etc. .
YueKai securities mentioned that is expected to make a good start in January with the gradual implementation of economic data recovery superposition policies and the support of performance level. It is recommended that investors focus on three main investment opportunities : 1) investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector with favorable policies . Recently, many ministries and commissions have intensively released the 14th five year plan for science and technology industry, specifically targeting the fields of intelligent manufacturing, national informatization, medical equipment industry, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, digital transportation and raw material industry. In the future, China's science and technology development will follow the two main lines of independent control and innovation leading. With the support of top-level policies, the investment opportunities in the subdivided science and technology sectors mentioned in the plan deserve attention, focusing on 5g, integrated circuit, industrial Internet, intelligent transportation, etc.
2) the consumer sector is expected to usher in a double-click market driven by valuation performance. Under the economic background of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, boosting consumption in 2022 is expected to become an important starting point, and more industrial policy support is expected in terms of consumption upgrading and market sinking. At the same time, the profitability of the consumer sector is likely to be significantly improved in 22 years. Under the low base effect, the performance elasticity is high, and the valuation end is expected to be significantly repaired under the boost of policy and prosperity.
3) investment opportunities in the pre hi sector of the annual report . At present, the performance prediction rate of A-share annual report has reached 81.51%, a total of 97 enterprises, including many enterprises in pharmaceutical and biological, electronic, chemical and mechanical equipment industries. The performance growth is expected to double. The shares are mainly concentrated in high-profile industries such as chemical, pharmaceutical and electronics, and can focus on high-quality targets with large margin improvement and strong sustainability in the fourth quarter.
