During the exchange with market investors this week, on the one hand, the current market reflects the worries about the capital level; At the same time, after the continuous decline, especially on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, the market showed positive changes. Some A-share leading enterprises released more brilliant business data from January to February, and the market was very concerned about whether the market index really hit the bottom.
In terms of capital, we found that the current enthusiasm for fund subscription at the public offering level has improved month on month compared with January and February; Private equity funds have great capital pressure; At present, the negative impact of Liangrong financing and snowball should be small. On the whole, the most severe stage of negative capital feedback on the market has passed. For the market index, the CSI 300 index fell 12.83% from the beginning of the year and 19.06% from the high point in May last year. An important question is whether it is a "decline relay" or is already at the "strategic bottom". Objectively speaking, under the current background of external factors (Russia Ukraine issue, fed interest rate hike and global inflation), real estate dilemma and China's epidemic situation have not been significantly alleviated, the weak market will rebound, but the market reversal will take some time. We maintain the recognition that the current market is at the bottom of the strategy and have a bright heart. In March, the sign of "seeing the dragon in the field" of A-Shares appeared, and the structural market is still firm and predictable.
For the current market, many internal and external factors lead to the continuous delay of the inflection point of the expected improvement of molecular end fundamentals, which is the essential reason for the sluggish market. At present, the most core is to grasp the inflection point of the expected improvement of molecular end fundamentals. In February, the growth rate of social finance was 10.2% year-on-year, down 0.3% from the previous month, and the medium and long-term loans of new residents were negative for the first time in history. We believe that the credit demand data in February is still weaker than the current expectations. At the same time, we believe that the market has a certain understanding of this fact. The continuous downturn of real estate stocks and consumer stocks after January can be confirmed from the side, which is also the biggest difference from the beginning of 2012 (at the beginning of 2012, the market believed in the economic effect under steady growth, there was a rotating general rise, and then the economic data fell unilaterally as expected). Therefore, even if the social finance data in February is less than expected, we believe that the impact on the market is limited. Under the economic growth target of 5.5% in this year's government work report, there will be further steady growth policies in the future. The probability of interest rate and standard reduction is increasing in the near future, which is conducive to correcting the overly pessimistic expectation of molecular fundamental profits and "let the bullet fly for a while". At the same time, we maintained our previous prediction of the end of the current round of economy in the second quarter. The inflection point of the improvement of molecular fundamentals is expected to be closer and closer. The possibility of entering a unilateral downward trend in the equity market similar to that in 2012 is low. In the second quarter, A-Shares "may jump into the abyss" and "Nike type" trend is still expected.
Here, we maintain the judgment that we are currently in "positional warfare" (strategic stalemate stage, stick to positions, maintain concentration, not suitable for switching back and forth). The consensus of the market will focus on the low position, looking for growth + short term (Q1 performance exceeds expectations and strong policy support).
At the same time, the current market has four main lines: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. For the worry about global inflation, we believe that although it is difficult to end in the short term, it will not change the internal operation logic of a shares. The follow-up space and sustainability of global inflation in the future still need further observation on the Fed's interest rate hike, China's economic fundamentals and transmission to a shares. In China, the high probability of post epidemic repair will be subject to the recent local epidemic in China and the lack of obvious adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies. In studying and judging the relationship between high prosperity and steady growth, we put forward two sentences: the first sentence is called "stable growth cannot afford, high prosperity is difficult to prosper", and the second sentence is called "steady growth can be realized, and high prosperity will turn for the better". To a certain extent, in December last year and January this year, it reflected a situation of "stable growth can not afford, high prosperity is difficult to prosper". Then, with the convening of the two sessions, it will gradually come to a process of steady growth and high prosperity. For the original high boom and high valuation track, the current photovoltaic consensus is the highest, followed by semiconductors and wind power, and finally new energy vehicles and military industry. At the same time, we believe that the high boom will have a process of differentiation and rebirth, and intelligence is expected to become a new consensus for the high boom in 2022. (for details, please refer to 2022, our choice - A-share core industry track monthly review (issue 1))
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed.
