Core view
The sharp rise in global resource prices has pushed up the level of inflation, which is gradually becoming the main line of more deterministic investment. The continuous expansion of coal price spread outside China has increased the pressure on China’s coal price regulation, but it also gives the industry the driving force for stable growth. The objectives of the two sessions are good for coal, the target price of the long-term association still has room to rise, and the profitability of coal enterprises is guaranteed. The overall supply of coal is still a bottleneck. Long construction cycle, weak investment willingness of coal enterprises, high debt ratio, high financing cost, stricter approval of new capacity and other factors restrict the large-scale release of coal capacity, and supply constraints still exist. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
Continuously improve the ecological environment and promote green and low-carbon development. In the environmental protection part of the government work report, in addition to continuing the past comprehensive treatment of the ecological environment and the battle for pollution prevention and control, we will strengthen the treatment of solid waste and new pollutants, promote waste classification, reduction and recycling, and improve environmental protection industry support policies such as energy and water conservation and recycling of waste materials, Combined with the construction goal of circular economy system in the 14th five year plan, the renewable resources industry will accelerate its development, the market space will be opened quickly, and relevant enterprises will also usher in a period of rapid growth. The “double carbon” part still sets work goals around key words such as energy revolution and low-carbon transformation, and continues to promote the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity. The rapid growth of new energy power generation is uncertain.
The goal of steady growth is clear, and the demand for cement, glass and consumer building materials is supported. The start of construction in spring is about to start, and the demand of cement and glass industry is expected to grow steadily. This week, the average cement price was slightly corrected, and the clinker price continued to rise. The rise was mainly due to the low clinker inventory during peak staggering and shutdown. At present, although the cement is in the off-season stage, the cement price is still at a historically high level. In terms of demand, the operating load of cement mill continues to rise this week, an increase of 8.53 percentage points over last week. With the start of construction in spring, the operating rate of downstream construction sites will increase steadily, and the cement peak season is coming. In terms of supply, the staggered peak and kiln shutdown in March will be completed one after another, and the supply of clinker and cement will rise steadily. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the cement area. The price of float glass continued to decline this week. At present, the downstream processing plant has not resumed normal operation, the market demand is lower than expected, and the inventory has increased. Subsequently, with the start of construction in spring, the glass market demand will grow steadily, and there is room for the price of float glass to increase.
Investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for environmental protection and public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for the public: recommendations for the China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ( Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) . SH). Building materials: recommended Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) . SH), Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ( Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) . SZ), ad stock ( Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . SZ), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) . SZ), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ( Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . SH), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) . SZ), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ( China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . SH). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ( China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ( Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) ( Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . SZ)
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the landing effect of production restriction is not as good as expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
