Index
On March 10, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 329609 points, up 1.22%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1237095 points, up 2.18%; The coal industry index closed at 278189 points, up 0.21%. The top three companies are: Yunnan Yunwei Company Limited(600725) , St Tianshou, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) . The non-ferrous metals index closed at 545607 points, up 0.97%. The top three companies are: Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) , Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(003038) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Comments
Lithium battery theme rose ahead. The automobile production and sales data reached a new high in January. The monthly production and sales scale exceeded 450000, and the production and sales volume maintained a high-speed growth trend year-on-year. The monthly production and sales volume of new energy vehicles were 452200 and 431400 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 133.55% and + 140.79% respectively. In terms of models, the monthly production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles increased year-on-year, but the year-on-year growth of production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles was significantly ahead of that of new energy commercial vehicles. It can be seen that after entering 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to be strong since the beginning of the year, and the supply of chip end has reappeared the clue of shortage recently. Superimposed on the shortage of upstream battery grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate in China is high and difficult to find. In terms of lithium extraction from Salt Lake, due to the unfinished gas limitation in heating season, the price of lithium will continue to be strong driven by strong supply and demand fundamentals.
In the corporate profit segment, the continuous high price of lithium will continue to drive the performance explosion of upstream lithium enterprises, and the midstream transmission, battery factory and vehicle factory will have a certain pressure risk. According to the forecast announcement of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) the annual report, 22q1 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 900-1.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1053.7% – 1438.2%, far exceeding the market expectation. Under the rigid competition of electric vehicle demand, the battery factory with cost advantage will occupy the market share and advantage. The profits of the industrial chain will move up, and the release of performance in the first quarter and the persistence of high lithium prices supported by supply and demand will gradually reverse the market cognition. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable position. It is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines. First, the battery factories with alleviated cost pressure and rebounded gross profit: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc; II. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc.
Industry dynamics
Recently, Yichun times new energy resources Co., Ltd., a Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) subsidiary of the original Yichun Xinfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., has a shareholding ratio of 65%; The legal representative is changed to Jiang Li, who will serve as the chairman and general manager. (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals)
Company dynamics
Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) ( Sichuan Anning Iron And Titanium Co.Ltd(002978) ): from January to February, the operating revenue was about 1.342 billion yuan, an increase of about 50% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 126 million yuan, an increase of about 60% over the same period last year. （Wind）
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected and geopolitical risks are escalating.
