In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, expanding for two consecutive months. Recently, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price has pushed down the price of raw materials, improved the power supply capacity, and significantly accelerated the production activities of the manufacturing industry.
In terms of manufacturing demand, the new order index in December was 49.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom and bust line. In terms of domestic demand, the recent rise in the operating rate of real estate projects has driven demand; China's monetary policy released a clear signal of marginal easing and implemented a comprehensive RRR reduction for the second time this year. In terms of external demand, the global economy continued to recover, and the growth momentum of major export destination countries was good, which supported exports.
In terms of manufacturing supply, the production index in December was 51.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, expanding for two consecutive months. The rapid recovery of the production side is mainly due to the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the reversal of the high price of raw materials and power tension that continue to restrict the production of the manufacturing industry, and the release of the production capacity of the manufacturing industry.
According to the enterprise scale index, in December, large and medium-sized enterprises continued to expand, small enterprises went worse at the margin of the contraction range, and the manufacturing industry further concentrated in large enterprises.
In December, the PMI ex factory price index and the purchase price index of main raw materials continued to fall, mainly because the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price appeared, the coal output rebounded and the coal price fell sharply, which led to the general decline of raw material prices. PPI and ppirm are expected to decline further in December.
Looking forward to the future, the price of means of production is expected to remain stable and promote the further expansion of manufacturing industry; The easing of real estate regulation policies and the acceleration of real estate project development can form a certain support for demand; In 2022, the financial expenditure is expected to be strengthened, and the infrastructure investment will increase significantly and drive the total demand; Monetary policy has made it clear to support economic growth. Under the background of "focusing on me", it is expected that there will be room to reduce policy interest rates next year. Overall, supported by favorable factors, PMI is expected to continue to expand moderately in the future, but attention should be paid to the spread of covid-19 epidemic, the risk of slowdown in economic growth of major foreign economies, and the impact of environmental protection and production restriction in winter.
