Event overview
On March 11, 2022, the people's Bank of China released the financial data for February 2022. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, expected to be 1.45 trillion yuan, up from 3.98 trillion yuan; Social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, with an expected 2.22 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 6.17 trillion yuan; The stock of social finance was 10.2% year-on-year, and the former value was 10.5%; M2 was 9.2% year-on-year, and the previous value was 9.8%; M1 was 4.7% year-on-year, and the previous value was - 1.9%.
Core view
In February, credit and social finance both weakened, significantly lower than market expectations. The loan structure is still poor, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents have increased significantly year-on-year, and the phenomenon of bill impulse is still obvious, indicating that the overall real economy is still weak, the recovery of economic fundamentals is still slow, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents is not strong, It is more consistent with the "credit easing" suggested in our previous report "calmly look at the" blowout "of social finance", which is unlikely to be achieved overnight. In the future, how to further activate the financing demand of the real economy and realize the transmission from "wide money" to "wide credit" has become a key issue in the first half of the year and even the whole year. The central bank's fourth quarter monetary policy report and the 2022 government work report all mentioned "expanding the scale of new loans". Under the current situation, it is expected that the loose monetary policy may be further overweight, The reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates may not be far away.
New credit contracted sharply, and the loan structure is still poor
In terms of total amount, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan in February (wind unanimously expected 1.45 trillion yuan), a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan; Medium - and long-term loans amounted to 459.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.05 trillion yuan.
In terms of structure: the loan structure at the enterprise end is still poor, and short-term loans and bills are the main support items; On the residential side, short-term loans and medium and long-term loans weakened at the same time. 1) In February, corporate loans amounted to 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan year-on-year. However, the loan structure is still poor, and short-term loans and bills are the main support items. Enterprise short-term loans reached 411.1 billion yuan, an increase of 161.4 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a year-on-year increase for three consecutive months; Bill financing continued to maintain a high growth, with an increase of 490.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Medium and long-term loans amounted to 505.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 594.8 billion yuan, and the scale of the decrease reached a record high. In addition to the impact of centralized bank lending in January, what is more important is that the financing demand of enterprises is still weak under the slowdown of economic activities; 2) In February, resident loans were - 336.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 479 billion yuan. Among them, residents' short-term loans were - 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22 billion yuan, indicating that residents' consumption is still weak under the disturbance of the epidemic; The medium and long-term loans of residents were - 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease for three consecutive months, indicating that the real estate relaxation policies successively issued by some cities are still difficult to alleviate the weakening trend of residents' expectations for the real estate market. According to the data released by Kerui, the monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises in February increased by - 46.5% year-on-year, further expanding the decline compared with January.
New social finance weakened again, and credit and non-standard dragged down significantly
In terms of total amount: Social Finance weakened again in February, adding 1.19 trillion yuan (wind unanimously expected 2.22 trillion yuan), a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan. The growth rate of stock social finance was 10.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Structure: new credit and new non-standard loans are the main drag on social finance, and corporate bonds and government bonds increased year-on-year. 1) The newly increased RMB loans under the social finance standard were 908.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 432.9 billion yuan, mainly related to the significant year-on-year decrease in resident loans. 2) Direct financing was relatively good. The net financing of corporate bonds was 337.7 billion yuan, an increase of 202.1 billion yuan year-on-year; Equity financing was 58.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8 billion yuan; 3) The net financing of government bonds was 272.2 billion yuan, an increase of 170.5 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly related to the large issuance scale of local special bonds in February. According to wind data, the net financing of local government bonds in February reached 496.3 billion yuan; 4) In terms of non-standard, the new non-standard in February decreased by 465.6 billion yuan year-on-year: the new entrusted loans increased by 2.6 billion yuan year-on-year, the new trust loans decreased by 18.5 billion yuan year-on-year, and the new undiscounted acceptance bills decreased by 486.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
M1 rose year-on-year, M2 fell year-on-year, and the scissors difference narrowed
In February, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in the growth rate of social finance led to the decline in the growth rate of M2.
The growth rate of M1 in February was 4.7%, up 6.6pct from the previous month. Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, it rose 2.7pct. Continue to pay attention to the subsequent growth changes. M1 rose, M2 fell, and the m1-m2 scissors difference narrowed to - 4.5%.
Risk tips
Economic activity has changed more than expected.
