In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic, the number of new cases in the world has fluctuated lower, and the effect of the epidemic on the economic impact has continued to weaken. In terms of economy, the US unemployment rate fell to 3.8% with the slight increase of labor participation rate. The employment situation continued to improve, superimposed with the continuation of high inflation, and the interest rate hike was just waiting for the official announcement of the Federal Reserve.
In terms of China's environment, the year-on-year data of import and export are stronger than the consensus expectation of wind, and the trade surplus is still significantly higher than the same period in 2021, and the net export still forms a positive pull on economic expansion; In terms of classification, epidemic prevention materials and some labor-intensive products have become an important driving force for export growth, while in terms of import, the high price of bulk commodities makes its high growth rate less attractive. In terms of inflation, the CPI in February was flat at the level of the previous month. The rise of gasoline and diesel prices for many times directly pushed up the month on month growth rate of non food CPI, and the rise of new rising factors offset the drag of significant downward trend; Although the increase of PPI in the same period was more obvious than that in the same period, it still failed to fully offset the impact of tail warping and decline, so its year-on-year growth rate in the current month decreased slightly to 8.8%, and the easing trend of cost pressure of middle and downstream enterprises was significantly weakened. In terms of policies, the government work report set the economic growth target of 5.5% in 2022, which once again confirmed the determination and confidence of the management to protect and stabilize the economy; Although the fiscal deficit has been reduced, the scale of expenditure has increased significantly, providing sufficient funds for fiscal regulation.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions fell again, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index rebounded. In the middle reaches, steel prices picked up slightly and cement prices slowed down. Upstream, coal prices generally strengthened, non-ferrous metals remained strong, precious metal prices rose significantly, and crude oil prices rose sharply.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
