Market review: the two cities recovered, and the plate rose more and fell less
Today, the two cities recovered and fluctuated higher throughout the day. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.62% to 3619.19 and the Shenzhen index rose 0.97% to 14796.23. In terms of sectors, the media, defense industry and electronics led the increase, while coal, transportation and basic chemical industry led the decline. The turnover of the two cities was 1017.87 billion yuan, an increase of 2.06% over the previous trading day and a contraction of 1.82% over the average of the previous five days. The net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 3.58 billion yuan, the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock connect was 4.561 billion yuan, and the actual net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was 8.141 billion yuan.
Market focus:
On January 1, 2022, RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement) will officially enter into force, marking the official landing of the free trade area with the largest population, the largest economic and trade scale and the most development potential in the world. The first batch of countries to take effect include six ASEAN countries and four non ASEAN countries such as China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia.
Strategy suggestion: pay attention to the opportunities of green industry chain
Today, the two cities warmed up and rose, but did not recover the land lost yesterday. The northward capital reappeared a substantial net inflow, the market turnover rebounded slightly, and the overall mood was more active. RCEP will come into force soon, or provide some support for China’s exports in 2022, but the range is expected to be relatively limited. On the one hand, RCEP can effectively promote the economic vitality of Member States, reduce the cost of export system and boost China’s exports. In particular, China and Japan have reached a free trade arrangement for the first time. The two sides have greatly reduced tariffs in many fields such as mechanical equipment, electronic information, chemical industry, light industry and textile. In the process of accelerating Japan’s economic recovery, It is expected to effectively stimulate the export of China’s foreign trade enterprises in relevant industries. On the other hand, under the background of global economic slowdown, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to start tightening based on inflation pressure is rising, or it may suppress foreign demand, superimpose the return of export share and the high base in the same period, and the downward pressure on China’s exports is still great. Overall, the downward trend of exports in 2022 is difficult to change, but the risk of “stall” is small. From a more macro and long-term perspective, the effectiveness of RCEP reminds the market to pay attention to the reconstruction of global supply chain. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, global supply bottlenecks and supply chain interruptions in some regions have made countries pay more and more attention to supply chain security, and anti globalization and trade protectionism are on the rise. Under the background of big country game, we believe that regional economic integration may replace economic globalization as a more prominent feature in the future global economic development pattern, Regional industrial chain coordination and reengineering may be an important direction, and China is expected to accelerate its shift to the high-quality development stage of foreign trade in this trend opportunity. At the same time, under the background of frequent global climate problems, emerging countries and developing countries in key areas of raw material supply and processing upstream of the supply chain are facing greater pressure of “carbon reduction”, It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the green industrial chain.
