In 2021, the accumulated import and export amount reached a record high, and the growth rate was still high
From January to November in 2021, the cumulative export volume was 3026450 million US dollars and the cumulative import volume was 2444730 million US dollars, far exceeding the cumulative export volume and cumulative import volume of the same period in 2020, and even exceeding the cumulative export volume and cumulative import volume of the whole year in 2020. Compared with the same period in 2020, the growth rate of cumulative exports in the first 11 months of 2021 is 31.10%, and the compound growth rate of two years is 15.70%; The growth rate of cumulative import volume was 31.40%, and the two-year compound growth rate was 13.82%; The cumulative import and export in the first 11 months of 2021 is relatively strong, reaching a new high since 2010. Although the growth rate of the cumulative export amount of each month in that year slowed down month by month from February to November 2021, it is still much higher than the average level since 2015, indicating that the growth rate of the cumulative import and export amount of each month is still strong.
The import growth rate between China and its major trading partners slowed down and the export growth rate was stable
From January to November 2021, China’s cumulative import and export amount with the United States, Japan, the European Union and ASEAN is significantly greater than that with the United States, Japan, the European Union and ASEAN in the same period in 2020; In November, the import amount increased year-on-year, and the export amount slowed down year-on-year. In the first 11 months of 2021, the cumulative export growth rate between China and RCEP partner countries was 26.22% year-on-year, and the two-year compound year-on-year growth rate was 14.42%; The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports was 28.88%, and the two-year compound year-on-year growth rate was 14.42%. In the cumulative import composition between China and RCEP’s trading partners in the first 10 months of 2021, Japan and South Korea accounted for 20.85% and 21.27%, which were the two largest import composition countries; In the cumulative export composition, Japan and South Korea accounted for 17.17% and 19.34%, still the two largest export composition countries.
In 2021, the proportion of China’s imports and exports in the imports and exports of the world’s major economies increased
From 2015 to 2019, the average monthly export proportion of China’s 23 major economies in the world was basically around 16%, but in 2020, the proportion was 17.89%, and the average proportion in the three quarters of 2021 was 18.47%. From 2015 to 2019, China’s monthly average import proportion of 23 major global economies was basically around 13%, but in 2020, the proportion was 14.80%, and the average proportion in the first three quarters of 2021 was 15.38%, which also increased significantly.
The price factor driving the growth of import and export amount is significant
The higher than expected growth rate of China’s import and export in 2021 is mainly due to the rise in commodity prices, and the decline and rise in the price of some import and export commodities. The price rise factors of export commodities are mainly reflected in raw materials and intermediates such as refined oil, rare earth and lithium-ion batteries, while the price rise factors of import commodities are mainly reflected in bulk commodities such as crude oil, steel, iron ore and coal.
It is expected that the subsequent import and export growth will gradually slow down
It is expected that in 2022, China’s import and export amount will rise slightly in absolute amount at the pace of slowing growth. PMI’s new export orders fell for six consecutive months and remained below the 50% boundary for seven consecutive months. The export order index was 49.4% in the third quarter, lower than 50%. It is expected that the subsequent export growth will slow down gradually. With the weakening of commodity imports and the continuous decline of import PMI, it is expected that the subsequent import growth rate will also decline. Considering the formal implementation of RCEP agreement in 2022; In the context of the mid-term elections in the United States, the Biden administration has the motivation to improve trade relations with China; The mortality rate of the epidemic is gradually reduced, and the impact on global import and export trade is expected to be smaller and smaller. Therefore, we believe that the international trade environment is expected to improve in 2022, and the absolute amount of import and export will rise slightly. However, considering the high base effect in 2021, the growth rate of import and export will gradually slow down in 2022.
Risk tips:
The change of RMB exchange rate, the rise of trade protectionism and the uncertainty caused by the impact of overseas epidemic.
