The progress of fiscal expenditure is slow, emphasizing people's livelihood and neglecting infrastructure
This year's fiscal policy has generally adhered to "improving quality, increasing efficiency and being more sustainable", providing strong support for the sustained recovery of the economy. From January to November, the national general public budget revenue increased by 12.8% year-on-year, higher than the level before the epidemic, mainly due to the continued recovery of economic growth and the rise of commodity prices. The slow pace of fiscal expenditure is mainly related to the low pressure on economic growth and the stricter audit of special debt projects in the first half of this year, but there is enough space for cross cycle adjustment. Fiscal expenditure this year focused on education, social security, employment and other areas of people's livelihood, and the cumulative infrastructure investment continued to decline year-on-year. Under the constraint of local government debt risk, the supervision has become stricter and the investment in infrastructure has been tightened, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of infrastructure investment.
The cooling of the housing market may continue to drag down next year
Due to the implementation of the centralized land supply policy this year and the standardization and strengthening of the supervision of land transfer fees, the prosperity of the land market is low, and the growth rate of government fund income and land transfer fee income has declined, which may further decline in the future. Since the third quarter, real estate enterprises have defaulted continuously, land auction has occurred frequently, and the growth rate of real estate sales, new construction and investment has generally turned negative. This round of land cooling has a significant drag on the progress of land transfer income, and the prosperity of subsequent real estate will continue to affect the progress of land transfer income.
Special bonds will be issued at the end of the year and pay attention to the efficiency of fund use
The issuance of special bonds was basically completed this year. At the national standing committee meeting, it was proposed that "the use of funds should pay attention to practical results, strengthen the audit and supervision of investment orientation", strengthen the construction of key areas and do not "sprinkle pepper", and the special bonds gradually changed from simply increasing the amount to coexisting with improving the efficiency of fund use.
In 2022, the fiscal may show a leading trend
On the whole, there will be great pressure on steady growth next year, and next year is the first year after the change of local government. The government's willingness to expand infrastructure and stabilize investment may increase. In view of this year's financial backwardness and no obvious force phenomenon has been seen, it is expected to start at the end of the year and continue until the first half of next year. Next year's finance may show a leading trend. At the same time, the direction of financial investment next year will continue. This year, we will continue to support major projects to promote regional coordinated development, promote the construction of "two new and one heavy", implement a number of major projects such as transportation, energy and water conservancy, build new infrastructure such as information network, and develop modern logistics system.
Tax reduction and fee reduction next year is still a bright spot, and intercity transportation and 5g have become the focus of new infrastructure
Under the trend of sustainable fiscal policy and macro tax burden declining year by year, tax cuts and fees are expected to reach 1.5 trillion next year, continue to play an important role in macro policies, and better promote the stable development of enterprises and the sustained recovery of the economy. The total investment scale of the new infrastructure is expected to be 1.66 trillion yuan next year. The investment scale of the old infrastructure is 12 times that of the new infrastructure. The new infrastructure is the auxiliary growth point of the old infrastructure. In the medium and long term, the investment scale is expected to be further expanded, and the investment pull is still worth looking forward to. Among them, the future investment scale of urban rail transit and 5g is large, accounting for 52.5% and 22.5% respectively, with strong development space.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, and China's policies exceeded expectations.
