event:
On December 31, 2021, the Bureau of statistics released PMI data. In December, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.3, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
comment:
In December 2021, the PMI index was 50.3, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Under the background that the prices of some raw materials continued to fall sharply and the management took multiple measures to stabilize the economy, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry remained within the expansion range for two consecutive months. From the sub item data, the pace of production expansion slowed down slightly, and the production index fell sharply by 0.6 percentage points to 51.4, still in the expansion range; At the same time, the new order index continued to rise below the boom and bust line to 49.7, and the contraction rhythm on the demand side slowed down. In terms of import and export, overseas demand further contracted while imports improved slightly. The new export order index fell 0.4 percentage points to 48.1, and the import index rebounded 0.1 percentage points to 48.2. In terms of price, the ex factory price index and the purchase price of raw materials continue to fall, the ex factory price falls and shrinks to 45.5, while the price of raw materials falls below the boom and bust line to 48.1, and the scissors gap between the two continues to narrow, and the profit squeeze of enterprises is expected to continue to improve. In terms of inventory, the inventory of finished products and raw materials continued to rise, but it was still below the boom and bust line, and the inventory deconvolution process continued.
For PMI of different types of manufacturing enterprises, the manufacturing outlook of large enterprises improved significantly in December, rising to 51.3% from 50.2% in November. Medium sized manufacturing enterprises maintained the previous boom, rising slightly by 0.1% to 51.3%. Small enterprises fell 2 percentage points to 46.5%. In terms of sub items, the production of large enterprises has improved significantly, and the production of small and medium-sized enterprises has dropped. In terms of new orders, large and medium-sized enterprises further picked up, while small enterprises fell significantly. The synchronous decline of production and new orders puts pressure on the overall prosperity of small enterprises. Since the fourth quarter, the government has been emphasizing the rescue of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, and policies such as LPR reduction, tax reduction and fee reduction have been brewing, which makes it possible to stabilize the prosperity of small enterprises. In terms of the employment index, the manufacturing employment index rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 49.1% in December. The recovery of the manufacturing industry has maintained the employment situation.
Overall, the manufacturing boom continues to improve, but the pace of expansion has slowed down, and the demand side is facing the pressure of falling exports. In terms of structure, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises is less than that of large enterprises. However, after the gradual implementation of the relief policy for small and medium-sized enterprises, it is expected to improve their business conditions. Looking forward to the future, the pressure on the demand side will replace the pressure on the cost side and become the main contradiction in economic operation in the next stage. We still need to pay attention to the implementation of the steady growth policy.
Risk tip: the economic recovery outside China is less than expected.
