Key investment points:
Core view. We disassembled and reconstructed the original sub items of pcepi into five items: motor vehicle, energy, other goods, residential and non residential services, which correspond to five core variables: chip bottleneck, crude oil, transportation capacity bottleneck, house price and salary / inflation expectation. Under the benchmark path, the annual inflation under the pcepi caliber will reach the peak of 6.32% in March and gradually fall back in the later stage. The corresponding inflection point of the market's inflation expectation will be determined in Q3, and the most tightening time of the annual liquidity expectation may or June.
Whether inflation is out of control depends on the race between commodity inflation and service inflation. The key to the annual inflation game will be whether the node of "supply chain repair → commodity inflation downward → index inflation downward" can be completed before "index inflation upward → inflation expectation upward → service inflation accelerated upward → index inflation out of control". The current tense situation in Russia and Ukraine has a significant delay effect on the decline of commodity inflation. Once the untimely decline of commodity inflation leads to the upward revision of inflation expectations, the resulting spiral may accelerate the market's pricing of the Fed's tightening expectations, forming a more significant liquidity impact.
Risk tips: ① greater risk aversion caused by the overall escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine; ② The commodity price rise crisis deepened the global stagflation crisis and forced the global central banks to implement more radical monetary tightening policies; ③ Covid-19 epidemic variation risk.
