In February 2022, CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, the same as that of the previous month, with a month on month increase of 0.6% and 0.2 percentage points. Among them, the tail warping effect of price changes last year was about - 0.1 percentage points, down about 0.6 percentage points from last month; The impact of the new price rise was about 1 percentage point, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. In addition, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and steady growth in overall prices. We predict that the CPI in February will increase by 0.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the actual result. The main source of error is the underestimation of food items. The price fluctuation of fresh vegetables and pork is expected, but the higher than expected increase of fresh fruit price has caused the final miscalculation to a certain extent.
In February 2022, PPI increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, up 0.5% month on month and up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the tail warping effect of price changes last year was 8.4%, down about 0.9 percentage points from last month; The impact of the new price rise was about 0.4%, up about 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The rebound of bulk commodities such as upstream crude oil and non-ferrous metals led to the rebound of the price of means of production, which became the main driver of the rebound of industrial ex factory price. We predict that the PPI in February is 8.8% year-on-year, which is the same as the actual result. The main reason is the reasonable expectation of the price of upstream means of production, the rebound of international crude oil and non-ferrous metals, and the downward slowdown of coal and ferrous metals in China.
