Events
On March 9, the National Bureau of statistics released data that in February 2022, the national consumer price rose by 0.9% year-on-year, the same as that of the previous month, up 0.6% month on month, and the increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; In February 2022, the ex factory price of industrial producers in China increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, from a decrease of 0.2% last month to an increase of 0.5%.
Comments
The year-on-year increase of CPI was generally stable, with a slight increase month on month. In February, CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, which was the same as that of the previous month. Focusing on the structure, the price of food items decreased by 3.9% year-on-year in February, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.76 percentage points, of which pork price is the main influencing factor. From the year-on-year data, pork prices fell by 42.5% in February, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; On a month on month basis, pork prices fell by 4.6%. After the Spring Festival, pork has entered the off-season of consumption. Although the stock of fertile sows has been callback to the green and reasonable area, the slaughter of pigs is still growing inertia, the price of pigs is in the downward channel, and the price of pork has become an important factor dragging down the price of food items. The No. 1 central document emphasizes that pig production capacity should be guided and reduced in 2022, and pork prices are expected to rebound in the second half of this year.
Except for food items, the prices of other seven categories of CPI in February increased by five, leveled by one and decreased by one. Among them, the price of transportation and communication increased by 1.4% month on month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Affected by the rise in international energy prices, the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 23.9% and 26.3% respectively, both expanding over the previous month.
The year-on-year increase of PPI continued to fall. PPI rose by 8.8% year-on-year in February, down 0.3 percentage points from last month. On a month on month basis, PPI increased by 0.5% from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month. Under the expectation that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue, but the progress of Iran nuclear negotiations is expected to ease the tight supply of crude oil in the market, and the international crude oil is likely to remain high and volatile. The sharp rise in international crude oil prices has driven up the prices of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) related industries, including 13.5% increase in oil exploitation price, 6.5% increase in refined petroleum products manufacturing price and 2.9% increase in organic chemical raw materials manufacturing price.
After the Spring Festival, the coal price will fall back to the high level, and the coal supply will return to the high level in the later stage of the Spring Festival. Although the power of China’s policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has significantly reduced coal prices, under the influence of the epidemic, the import volume of Indian coal has continued to decline, and the short-term increment of Mongolian coal import is limited. The supply and demand pattern of coal, especially coking coal, still needs attention. Under the influence of the global energy crisis, commodity prices are still the main factor driving up the price of industrial products. The price of means of production changed from a decrease of 0.2% to an increase of 0.7%, and the price of means of living changed from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The cost side pressure of industrial enterprises has been alleviated.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic fluctuates more than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the monetary policy changes.
